Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Pennsylvania, here we come.
The morning after Super Duper Tuesday leaves only one conclusion – it’s not over ‘til it’s over – and it ain’t over yet.
That is certainly true for the Democrats, where Barack Obama won the most states but Hillary Clinton won the most delegates and bragging rights to California, where one out of eight Americans live. But neither candidate is even half-way there to the 2,025 delegates needed to nominate, with (depending on whose numbers you use) Clinton at 825 and Obama at 732 and John Edwards still has his 26. One caveat: the delegate numbers are not all in yet from Super Tuesday.
The Republicans seem to have conferred “front runner” status on John McCain, and he now has more than half the delegates needed to win the GOP nomination. He has been helped tremendously by the split between his opponents: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul. With conservatives deeply divided, the more liberal (on a few things) McCain has taken advantage. Today, McCain has 615 delegates, Romney has 268, Huckabee has 169, and Paul has 16. It takes 1,191 to nominate.
While, arguably, McCain has it in the bag, unless GOP conservatives anoint one of the two main challengers, the Democratic race is wide open – and that increases the likelihood that Pennsylvania with its April primary just might have a seat at the decision-making table.
Here’s what to expect next.
This Saturday, Louisiana, Nevada, and Washington elect a total of 205 delegates followed by Maine on Sunday with 38 delegates. Next Tuesday, Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia choose 240 delegates. Hawaii, Washington, and Wisconsin (with a total 121 delegates) vote on Tuesday, February 19.
If one candidate really dominates the other through this process, then it is mathematically possible for the winner to come close to nomination with a sweep on Tuesday, March 4. But don’t count on it. That’s when two biggies, Ohio and Texas, vote along with Rhode Island and Vermont. On that date, 444 delegates will be chosen.
After that, there’s only Wyoming and Misissippi in March before the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary.
Assuming a continued deadlock on the Democratic side, Pennsylvania with the fourth largest number of delegates (188) at the 2008 Democratic Convention will be the decider. If not, in May, voters in Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia will have the last say. And, of course, if neither Obama or Clinton have 2,025 delegates by then, it’s on to a “brokered” convention.
The battle in Pennsylvania will be intense. Earlier polls have had Clinton leading Obama by 20 points, but nobody believes that’s true today. Clinton enjoys strong support from Gov. Ed Rendell and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, a rising African American star, while Obama has support from U.S. Reps. Chaka Fattah and Patrick Murphy (both in the Philadelphia area) and former U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford, a long-time Kennedy protégé. Most of PA’s members of Congress, including U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, have made no endorsement. Last night, Casey told me he was not likely to endorse anyone before the primary.
Like most states, PA has a convoluted way of apportioning its 188 delegates with the majority of delegates determined by the vote in each of the 19 congressional delegates. Rendell, Casey, and the 11 Democratic members of Congress are “super delegates”, along with the state’s members of the Democratic National Committee. After the primary, more delegates will be chosen among other leading elected officials (like mayors, statewide officials, and county executives), as well as others to secure gender and racial balance, but these delegates will be pledged to support Clinton or Obama, depending on their vote in the state. If it sounds complicated, it is.
What is not complicated to understand is that Pennsylvania is up for grabs for the first time since 1976 when Democrats gave Jimmy Carter the edge over Morris Udall. Both candidates have been in this state over the past year, but always to raise money. Clinton has not been in Pittsburgh in more than a year or so, although she was in Philadelphia recently to get endorsed by Rendell and Nutter. Obama’s last trek to this part of the state was last year to raise money when he got some notoriety for meeting with the local press for exactly 120 seconds. All that is likely to change, especially after the March 4 contests.
Pennsylvania, with its six media markets and very diverse population, is not an easy state to traverse. But voters here like retail politics, whether it’s gobbling down a Philly cheesesteak or having an IC light and Primanti’s sandwich here in the ‘Burgh, and the smart candidate (and both Clinton and Obama are smart) does more than just a quick airport media stop.
While one of the two Democrats could “suspend” his or her campaign before the April 22 primary, I’m betting not. The road to the presidential convention in Denver clearly leads through the Keystone State, and Pennsylvania voters are waiting to be courted!
If you have any thoughts or comments, please email me at delano.jon@gmail.com. And let me know what you’re hearing out there on the political trail.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Monday, February 4, 2008
SuperDuperTuesday
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Next Tuesday, February 5, is Super Duper Tuesday when millions of Americans will go to the polls to pick the Republican and Democratic nominees for president. Unfortunately, millions of others – including those of us in Pennsylvania – will not be part of this “national” primary. And, regrettably again, because of the impact of the earlier caucuses and primaries, those Americans who do get a vote on Tuesday will not get a full selection of candidates. In my view, this is a fundamentally flawed system by which to choose a president.
In an earlier PSF, I reviewed the presidential race as I saw it then. After a brief update, let’s move on to Pennsylvania politics. First, my thanks for so many wonderful comments to my last PSF. I love getting them, and I always treat them as “off-the-record” comments. My apologies if you get some scary automated comment when you hit the “reply” button. I think you can avoid that by initiating a “new” email to me at delano.jon@gmail.com. In any case, don’t be a stranger, especially if you have some new tidbit to share with me or our politically savvy friends. If you feel like commenting publicly, there is a “comment” section on my blog at http://delanosden.blogspot.com/. Just be respectful of all.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
Presidential Update:
And then there were two, sort of.
Barack Obama versus Hillary Clinton. Barring the unexpected, the Democratic nominee for president will either be a woman or an African American. In both cases, Americans will be asked to do something never asked before, at least at this level of a campaign. I opined earlier that I think the gender barrier may actually be tougher to break than the racial barrier, but both candidates ask voters to think beyond our traditional prejudices.
One PSFer suggested that for every white who will never vote for a black, there is a man (and in some cases, a woman) who will never support a woman for president. This year we will have a chance to test these anecdotal political theories. I hope that whatever happens America can look back with pride on the 2008 general election campaign. We shall see.
I was disappointed that John Edwards suspended his campaign so unexpectedly, not because of any personal preference or belief that he would win. Rather, Edwards played an important role in the race by keeping the candidates focused on important issues, especially health care and poverty. I have interviewed both Edwards and his wife Elizabeth on a number of occasions, and I have always been impressed with his sincerity and commitment to his causes. As for Elizabeth, given her family roots in western PA – yes, her dad graduated from Brownsville High School in 1938 – how can I not help but be enamored by her grace and passion.
So far, Edwards has shown no desire to endorse anyone, and I would be surprised if he did. The rumor that he could be either Obama’s or Clinton’s attorney general will drive the corporate and defense attorneys crazy, but it is an intriguing notion. At least we know where he stands on waterboarding!
John McCain versus Mitt Romney. Well, not exactly. There’s also Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. McCain seems to be racking up endorsements after his Florida win and he’s peddling the belief that he is the only Republican who can beat the Democratic nominee. McCain does have an appeal beyond traditional GOP lines, and there’s no doubt in my mind he could win the presidency. [See my last PSF posted on my blog at http://delanosden.blogspot.com/ for my view that the Republicans can win the White House in 2008]. But McCain’s strengths outside his party are weaknesses within his party, and both Romney and Huckabee have moved to exploit them. Romney is hurt by Huckabee’s presence on so many ballots, as he does give true conservatives another candidate to support. But the real question is whether this has become a two-person race such that Republicans who dislike McCain’s stands on immigration, taxes, campaign reform, etc., etc. opt for Romney as the only credible alternative. We shall see.
I was taken to task for leaving Ron Paul out of my last PSF. My apologies to the Paul fans, and there are a lot of them. I have not met Ron Paul, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the fervor with which he articulates his views, especially his belief that American foreign policy in Iraq contravenes traditional conservative values. While Paul has not broken into the top tier of candidates – his supporters blame the mainstream media for that – he has consistently attracted from 3 percent (Florida) to 14 percent (Nevada) of the vote. Moreover, his ability to raise money on-line has been awesome. He’s not a factor in this election, but he does give anti-war Republicans a candidate to support.
A Brokered Convention:
Despite all the media play about a brokered convention in Denver and Minneapolis, it now appears much less likely of that occurring. Still, if it’s a very close delegate race between Obama and Clinton and/or McCain and Romney, February 5 will not settle things. That pushes decision-making into the later primaries. Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington votes on February 9, with Maryland and Virginia on February 12. Hawaii and Wisconsin vote later in the month, with March 4 another big delegate day with contests in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Because the state Senate blocked a bill to move the Pennsylvania primary to February 12, this commonwealth will almost certainly not be part of the primary sweepstakes. But, if no one has a majority of the delegates after March 4, Pennsylvania on April 22 would be the kingmaker – or queenmaker! I know we’re ready to decide, if the other states can’t make it final!
PENNSYLVANIA
Impacting the Delegate Battle:
Even though PA is not yet a player in the delegate sweepstakes, that hasn’t stopped the state’s most senior politician from making an endorsement. Gov. Ed Rendell told me a few weeks ago that he was not planning to endorse any candidate for president until closer to the April 22 primary. That changed when, sources tell me, the Clintons asked Rendell to endorse Hillary before the South Carolina primary. There was never any real surprise who Rendell would back. He has been close to both Clintons for years, serving as chair of the Democratic National Committee during the presidency of President Clinton. The state’s other senior Democrat, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, has not endorsed either Obama or Clinton, telling me that both of them supported his campaign in 2006 to unseat former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum. One former U.S. senator from PA, Harris Wofford, told me last August that he was backing Obama because he found Obama to be inspiring like John F. Kennedy in whose White House Wofford once worked many years ago.
Speaking of Santorum, the state’s most prominent conservative endorsed Romney on Friday, saying true conservatives cannot sit on the sidelines and declaring that Romney “has fought for life, marriage, tax cuts and a stronger national defense. In the coming days, I look forward to working with him as we fight for our party's conservative foundations." McCain has already picked up support from former Gov. Tom Ridge, and just added support from the PA Republican Party chair, Robert Gleason. As far as I know, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter has endorsed no one.
Pennsylvania has the fourth largest concentration of Democratic delegates – 188 – and the fifth largest collection of GOP delegates – 74 – but it may well be over before voters in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts pick the delegates pledged to particular candidates.
State Row Offices Up for Grabs:
This spring and fall, Pennsylvanians will also elect 19 members of Congress, 203 members of the PA House of Representatives, 25 members of the state Senate, and three statewide elected officials – Attorney General, Auditor General, and State Treasurer – offices frequently used as a springboard for other more prominent state office like Governor and U.S. Senator.
Attorney General Tom Corbett, a suburban Pittsburgh Republican, is asking voters for another four years as AG. Corbett, who has deep political roots going back to his days as the local campaign chair for George H. W. Bush (for which he was rewarded by being named U.S. Attorney for Western PA), will be difficult for the Democrats to beat, in my view. He has been a very visible AG, focusing on internet child pornography and drug busts. But his greater notoriety will come later this year as he investigates “Bonusgate” among Democratic and Republican legislators in Harrisburg – see below – with charges expected against some prominent leaders.
Democratic Party leaders have endorsed Northampton District Attorney John Morganelli to challenge Corbett, and Morganelli brings 16 years of DA experience to the task. Morganelli has run for this office before, and is well known among law enforcement officials, having served as president of the state’s DA association and on the state’s Crime Commission. Can Morganelli defeat Corbett? Yes, absolutely, if the stars align correctly during this presidential year. But since the office became elective in 1980, the Republicans have won every contest. Morganelli trumpets an internal campaign poll that shows him at 34 percent, Corbett at 37 percent, and a whopping 29 percent undecided. Morganelli believes he can showcase his tough anti-crime record as a DA, and he calls for an “independent counsel” to investigate Bonusgate, saying a Republican politico like Corbett cannot be trusted to investigate Republican legislators.
Auditor General Jack Wagner, a Pittsburgh Democrat, hopes for an easy cruise to reelection in 2008. He just might get it. Wagner, a former Pittsburgh city councilman and state senator, is no stranger to PA politics. He was picked by then State Treasurer Bob Casey to be his running-mate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002. Both Casey and Wagner lost those nomination battles, but Wagner parlayed that into a statewide run for Auditor General, winning big in 2004. A Vietnam veteran often recognized for his work on behalf of veterans, Wagner has used his office to conduct visible state audits that attract local media attention around the state.
Many Republicans had hoped that David Sanko, chief of staff to former Gov. Mark Schweiker and later Rendell’s PEMA (PA Emergency Management) director, would take on Wagner. But Sanko, who had returned home to Bucks County to be that county’s chief operating officer, announced this week that he would not run for public office, citing bad timing for him personally. That leaves Chet Beiler, the Republican chair of Lancaster County, as the only announced challenger. Beiler is a successful businessman who grew up on family farm in Amish country and built a company called Amish Country Gazebos that was featured on an episode of the TV show “Extreme Makeover Home Edition.” Beiler has sought public office before, like Auditor General and State Senate, but it looks like he now has the GOP nomination to himself. He comes from an increasingly important part of the state, but Beiler will need an infusion of cash to become better known in the populace southeastern and southwestern ends of the state.
When former State Treasurer Bob Casey resigned his office last year to take the oath as a U.S. Senator, the governor appointed a state treasurer, Robin Weissmann, who pledged not to seek office in 2008. That gives both parties a chance to win an “open” statewide seat. On the Democratic side, four candidates are vying for the nomination: John Cordisco, the Democratic chair of Bucks County; State Rep. Jennifer Mann, a Lehigh County legislator; Rob McCord, a venture capitalist from Montgomery County; and Dennis Morrison-Wesley, an African American cable TV salesman in Harrisburg who once worked for Merrill Lynch until, he says, he was fired for supporting Casey over Santorum, charges denied by the company.
Arguably, Mann from Allentown is the best known of the bunch, although she is hardly a statewide figure. She is generally regarded as a pro-business centrist Democrat who supports abortion rights, and, as the only woman (so far) in the race she can capitalize on the absence of any woman running statewide in 2008. McCord is the money candidate. The suburban Philly businessman reportedly has the ability, and the desire, to pump more than a million of his own dollars into the campaign. Cordisco, a former Bucks County state legislator, has already had word battles with his fellow Philadelphian, accusing McCord of taking money from those who want to manage monies handled by the Treasurer. McCord says Cordisco voted for legislative pay raises when he was in the state House and is, therefore, unelectable. Absent from the crowded ballot is any candidate from west of the Susquehanna River. Allegheny County Treasurer John Weinstein has toyed with the idea, but no formal announcement yet from someone who is generally well-known in this region. Another potential candidate with a strong base and lots of money is former Philadelphia mayoral candidate Tom Knox. Stay tuned. This race hasn’t yet jelled.
The Republicans seem to have their candidate for State Treasurer: former Montgomery County commissioner Thomas Jay Ellis. Ellis is a bond attorney, who is now caught up in a politically-charged civil lawsuit involving rival tax collection companies, one of which was hired on a no-bid basis by the Montgomery commissioners to replace the other. While Ellis has not been sued himself, the losing company wants to take his sworn deposition. He has refused, arguing a conflict of interest, but a federal judge appears to think otherwise, especially since Ellis is no longer a commissioner.
State House Could Party Switch:
The Democrats control the State House by just one vote, 102 to 101, and that margin of control could be in great jeopardy this year. [The State Senate is 29 Republican to 21 Democrats, and nobody thinks that will change much in 2008]. Last time I checked, about 24 legislators were retiring this year, including five senators: Gib Armstrong, a Lancaster County Republican; Jerry LaValle, a Beaver County Democrat; Roger Madigan, a Bradford County Republican; Terry Punt, a Franklin County Republican; and Connie Williams, a Montgomery County Democrat. The first four seats are likely to stay in the same party, but the Williams’ seat in suburban Philadelphia could be a real battleground with both parties seeking to field strong candidates.
On the House side, 19 representatives are stepping down, some to run for the state Senate like Sean Ramaley (D/Beaver), Daylin Leach (D/Mongtomery), and Steven Cappelli (R/Lycoming). Democrats think they have a shot at three House seats held by Republicans who are retiring in Bucks (David Steil) and Chester Counties (Arthur Hershey & Carole Rubley), while Republicans think they can retake Leach’s seat and the seat held by Tom Tangretti (D/Westmoreland). After the dust settles on April 22, other seats could be in play as well, including that of the House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (D/Greene). Bottom line is that the state House is up for grabs.
The most surprising retirement announcement this last month was that of Lisa Bennington, a 31-year old freshman Democratic legislator from Pittsburgh, who (along with Chelsa Wagner and Deberah Kula) returned women to the House from southwestern PA in 2006. Bennington says she underestimated the wasted time in Harrisburg and, frankly, would just prefer to grow her family law practice. Ironically, the man she beat in the Democratic primary, Frank Pistella, is trying to make a comeback, although lots of other candidates are circulating petitions as well.
By way of comparison, in 2006 some 31 incumbents decided not to seek reelection (compared to 24 this year) and another 24 incumbents were defeated at the polls in the wake of the pay raise controversy. That ushered in 55 new legislators (out of the 253), a better than 20 percent change. Nobody expects that kind of turnover in 2008.
Could “Bonusgate” Alter the Political Equation:
The media is calling it Bonusgate, the use of taxpayer dollars to reward legislative staff for the political work they did on a variety of campaigns in 2006. This, of course, is illegal. While the law back then allowed for bonus dollars to reward legislative work, there is no question that senior legislators could not use these dollars to “thank” staffers for their campaign work. After their successful take-over of the House, House Democratic leaders awarded $1.9 million in bonus money to 717 employees, while the House Republicans gave out $270,000 to 45 staffers. Senate Republicans gave out $180,000 in bonuses to 16 employees, while Senate Democrats gave out $38,000 to 12 staffers.
Did senior House and Senate legislative leaders hand out bonuses to reward staffers for their political work? Nobody knows, but Attorney General Corbett has convened a grand jury to investigate. Corbett says he’s looking at all four caucuses, but some Democrats don’t believe it. They think Corbett will target Democrats to improve his reelection chances and to position himself for a gubernatorial run in 2010. Corbett’s Democratic opponent this year, John Morganelli, says legislative corruption needs to be investigated fully without regard to politics, and he argues that an independent special counsel should be named to conduct such an investigation.
Most of the public attention has been on the House Democrats, who did dole out more than double the cash of their GOP counterparts. House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese has suggested that he was really not in the loop on these bonus awards in 2006. But whether intended or not, that implicitly suggests that it was the work of then second-ranking Democrat, former state Rep. Mike Veon of Beaver County, who was defeated in 2006 and senior staffers. After the public furor broke over the bonuses, DeWeese brought in former Philadelphia assistant DA William Chadwick to review operations, sort through what happened, and cooperate with Corbett and the grand jury on the investigation.
In November, DeWeese fired seven senior Democratic staff people, including Mike Manzo, his chief of staff, and Scott Brubaker, director of staffing and administration, both of whom appear to have been involved in the bonus awards.
Nobody really knows how this will all play out, although speculation is hot in Harrisburg that charges are soon-to-come. For his part, DeWeese says he is running for reelection for a 17th term – and, so far at least, House Democrats have not stripped him of his position as their leader. Republican Greg Hopkins of Greene County, who nearly upended DeWeese in 2006, is running again. Hopkins is a 36-year old assistant football coach for the Los Angeles Avengers, an Arena Football League, where he was star player for a number of years. He was also a football player at Waynesburg Central High School and Slippery Rock University, and got 8,994 votes to DeWeese’s 10,035, the closest race for DeWeese in a long time.
Whether any other Democratic legislators are implicated by Bonusgate remains to be seen. And there is also the possibility that some Republican legislators could be affected as well, if Corbett follows through with his stated intention to let the chips fall where they may. But right now, it’s all just speculation and radio talk show fodder.
Republicans Attempt a Congressional Comeback:
Once upon a time, Melissa Hart was the Republican darling of PA politics. The first GOP woman elected to Congress from the state, Hart always upended her naysayers, winning races when no one expected it. Her GOP colleagues in Washington embraced her, giving her visible leadership positions and coming to her aid when asked. Then in 2006 along came Jason Altmire, a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Bush, anti-war Democrat, who rather suddenly attracted hundreds of thousands of dollars from those smelling blood. In the end, Altmire defeated Hart by 8,500 votes out of 254,000 cast. Now Hart wants a rematch, always difficult to do. But history teaches that Melissa Hart is never to be underestimated.
Pennsylvania was a congressional disaster for Republicans in 2006. Dems targeted five incumbent Republicans and defeated four out of five. Hart, who represented parts of six counties north and west of Pittsburgh, was one of them. The other Democratic winners: Patrick Murphy (who won by 1,500 votes) and Joe Sestak (who won by 33,000 votes) in suburban Philadelphia and Chris Carney (who won by 12,000 votes) in northeast/north central PA.
Republicans dream of retaking these seats, although Altmire-Hart is the only rerun of the last show. Murphy has four GOP challengers looking to take him on: Tom Lingenfelter, Jeff Madden, Tom Manion, and Joseph Montone. A former Marine, Manion, who lost a son in Iraq, is a strong supporter of the war and has the support of the congressman Murphy defeated, former U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. Sestak has two challengers, Wendell Craig Williams and Joe Breslin. Williams has been endorsed by Delaware County GOP leaders and has an impressive resume as an assistant U.S. attorney and Gulf War veteran. Carney has four opponents right now, including Chris Hackett, David Haire, Dan Meuser, and Paul Swiderski. Insiders tell me Meuser and Hackett are the leading challengers at the moment.
Can these four freshman Democrats be defeated? Of course. But they each start the year with big cash advantages over their prospective challengers and the likelihood that more Democrats will turn out to vote during a presidential election year. But we’ll keep our eyes on these seats throughout the year.
Republicans also hope to defeat another incumbent Democratic congressman. Despite at least a public reticence to say he’s running, Republicans are trying to get Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run against U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski. Barletta has attracted national attention for his strong stand against illegal immigrants. Barletta could give Kanjorski a real race. Stay tuned.
The surprise retirement of U.S. Rep. John Peterson, a Republican from one of the largest geographic districts that stretches across northern PA, gives some Democrats hope they can win an open seat. But don’t count on it. Nonetheless, a lot of candidates in both parties have caught the bug. Among the Republicans, seven candidates are in the running: former Centre County commissioner Chris Exarchos, Elk County coroner Lou Radkowski, State College businessman Matt Shaner, Woodward Township (Lycoming) supervisor Jeff Stroehman, Clarion mayor John Stroup, Centre County Republican chairman G. T. Thompson, and Bigler (Clearfield) financial consultant Derek Walker. On the Democratic side, the candidates include Centre County native, Iraqi War veteran and former news correspondent Bill Cahir, Clearfield County commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.
Democrats are lining up to take on two Republican incumbents who represent Democratic-leaning districts, but at this stage nobody is predicting any upsets. U.S. Rep. Phil English, an Erie Republican, will face one of four Democrats in his northwestern PA district: Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County councilman Kyle Foust, Erie attorney Tom Myers, and Erie lay minister Mike Waltner. In southwestern PA, U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, a suburban Pittsburgh Republican, will end up being challenged by Army Reserve Col. Wayne Dudding of Robinson, Mt. Lebanon consultant and former teacher Beth Hafer (daughter of Barbara Hafer), Monroeville businessman Steve O’Donnell, Penn Hills school director Erin Vecchio, and Upper St. Clair insurance executive Brien Wall. As these and other congressional races shape up – after the February 12 deadline for filing nominating petitions – I’ll have much more on these battles.
There is always much more to write about – politics in Allegheny County and the City of Pittsburgh, for example – but let’s bring this PSF to an end until another day. It’s almost time for the Super Bowl, which cannot be as super as it might have been had the Steelers been in it. Once again, if you have any comments (off the record) to share with me, please do get back in touch. Enjoy Super Duper Tuesday!
Next Tuesday, February 5, is Super Duper Tuesday when millions of Americans will go to the polls to pick the Republican and Democratic nominees for president. Unfortunately, millions of others – including those of us in Pennsylvania – will not be part of this “national” primary. And, regrettably again, because of the impact of the earlier caucuses and primaries, those Americans who do get a vote on Tuesday will not get a full selection of candidates. In my view, this is a fundamentally flawed system by which to choose a president.
In an earlier PSF, I reviewed the presidential race as I saw it then. After a brief update, let’s move on to Pennsylvania politics. First, my thanks for so many wonderful comments to my last PSF. I love getting them, and I always treat them as “off-the-record” comments. My apologies if you get some scary automated comment when you hit the “reply” button. I think you can avoid that by initiating a “new” email to me at delano.jon@gmail.com. In any case, don’t be a stranger, especially if you have some new tidbit to share with me or our politically savvy friends. If you feel like commenting publicly, there is a “comment” section on my blog at http://delanosden.blogspot.com/. Just be respectful of all.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
Presidential Update:
And then there were two, sort of.
Barack Obama versus Hillary Clinton. Barring the unexpected, the Democratic nominee for president will either be a woman or an African American. In both cases, Americans will be asked to do something never asked before, at least at this level of a campaign. I opined earlier that I think the gender barrier may actually be tougher to break than the racial barrier, but both candidates ask voters to think beyond our traditional prejudices.
One PSFer suggested that for every white who will never vote for a black, there is a man (and in some cases, a woman) who will never support a woman for president. This year we will have a chance to test these anecdotal political theories. I hope that whatever happens America can look back with pride on the 2008 general election campaign. We shall see.
I was disappointed that John Edwards suspended his campaign so unexpectedly, not because of any personal preference or belief that he would win. Rather, Edwards played an important role in the race by keeping the candidates focused on important issues, especially health care and poverty. I have interviewed both Edwards and his wife Elizabeth on a number of occasions, and I have always been impressed with his sincerity and commitment to his causes. As for Elizabeth, given her family roots in western PA – yes, her dad graduated from Brownsville High School in 1938 – how can I not help but be enamored by her grace and passion.
So far, Edwards has shown no desire to endorse anyone, and I would be surprised if he did. The rumor that he could be either Obama’s or Clinton’s attorney general will drive the corporate and defense attorneys crazy, but it is an intriguing notion. At least we know where he stands on waterboarding!
John McCain versus Mitt Romney. Well, not exactly. There’s also Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul. McCain seems to be racking up endorsements after his Florida win and he’s peddling the belief that he is the only Republican who can beat the Democratic nominee. McCain does have an appeal beyond traditional GOP lines, and there’s no doubt in my mind he could win the presidency. [See my last PSF posted on my blog at http://delanosden.blogspot.com/ for my view that the Republicans can win the White House in 2008]. But McCain’s strengths outside his party are weaknesses within his party, and both Romney and Huckabee have moved to exploit them. Romney is hurt by Huckabee’s presence on so many ballots, as he does give true conservatives another candidate to support. But the real question is whether this has become a two-person race such that Republicans who dislike McCain’s stands on immigration, taxes, campaign reform, etc., etc. opt for Romney as the only credible alternative. We shall see.
I was taken to task for leaving Ron Paul out of my last PSF. My apologies to the Paul fans, and there are a lot of them. I have not met Ron Paul, but it’s hard not to be impressed with the fervor with which he articulates his views, especially his belief that American foreign policy in Iraq contravenes traditional conservative values. While Paul has not broken into the top tier of candidates – his supporters blame the mainstream media for that – he has consistently attracted from 3 percent (Florida) to 14 percent (Nevada) of the vote. Moreover, his ability to raise money on-line has been awesome. He’s not a factor in this election, but he does give anti-war Republicans a candidate to support.
A Brokered Convention:
Despite all the media play about a brokered convention in Denver and Minneapolis, it now appears much less likely of that occurring. Still, if it’s a very close delegate race between Obama and Clinton and/or McCain and Romney, February 5 will not settle things. That pushes decision-making into the later primaries. Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington votes on February 9, with Maryland and Virginia on February 12. Hawaii and Wisconsin vote later in the month, with March 4 another big delegate day with contests in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Because the state Senate blocked a bill to move the Pennsylvania primary to February 12, this commonwealth will almost certainly not be part of the primary sweepstakes. But, if no one has a majority of the delegates after March 4, Pennsylvania on April 22 would be the kingmaker – or queenmaker! I know we’re ready to decide, if the other states can’t make it final!
PENNSYLVANIA
Impacting the Delegate Battle:
Even though PA is not yet a player in the delegate sweepstakes, that hasn’t stopped the state’s most senior politician from making an endorsement. Gov. Ed Rendell told me a few weeks ago that he was not planning to endorse any candidate for president until closer to the April 22 primary. That changed when, sources tell me, the Clintons asked Rendell to endorse Hillary before the South Carolina primary. There was never any real surprise who Rendell would back. He has been close to both Clintons for years, serving as chair of the Democratic National Committee during the presidency of President Clinton. The state’s other senior Democrat, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, has not endorsed either Obama or Clinton, telling me that both of them supported his campaign in 2006 to unseat former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum. One former U.S. senator from PA, Harris Wofford, told me last August that he was backing Obama because he found Obama to be inspiring like John F. Kennedy in whose White House Wofford once worked many years ago.
Speaking of Santorum, the state’s most prominent conservative endorsed Romney on Friday, saying true conservatives cannot sit on the sidelines and declaring that Romney “has fought for life, marriage, tax cuts and a stronger national defense. In the coming days, I look forward to working with him as we fight for our party's conservative foundations." McCain has already picked up support from former Gov. Tom Ridge, and just added support from the PA Republican Party chair, Robert Gleason. As far as I know, U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter has endorsed no one.
Pennsylvania has the fourth largest concentration of Democratic delegates – 188 – and the fifth largest collection of GOP delegates – 74 – but it may well be over before voters in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts pick the delegates pledged to particular candidates.
State Row Offices Up for Grabs:
This spring and fall, Pennsylvanians will also elect 19 members of Congress, 203 members of the PA House of Representatives, 25 members of the state Senate, and three statewide elected officials – Attorney General, Auditor General, and State Treasurer – offices frequently used as a springboard for other more prominent state office like Governor and U.S. Senator.
Attorney General Tom Corbett, a suburban Pittsburgh Republican, is asking voters for another four years as AG. Corbett, who has deep political roots going back to his days as the local campaign chair for George H. W. Bush (for which he was rewarded by being named U.S. Attorney for Western PA), will be difficult for the Democrats to beat, in my view. He has been a very visible AG, focusing on internet child pornography and drug busts. But his greater notoriety will come later this year as he investigates “Bonusgate” among Democratic and Republican legislators in Harrisburg – see below – with charges expected against some prominent leaders.
Democratic Party leaders have endorsed Northampton District Attorney John Morganelli to challenge Corbett, and Morganelli brings 16 years of DA experience to the task. Morganelli has run for this office before, and is well known among law enforcement officials, having served as president of the state’s DA association and on the state’s Crime Commission. Can Morganelli defeat Corbett? Yes, absolutely, if the stars align correctly during this presidential year. But since the office became elective in 1980, the Republicans have won every contest. Morganelli trumpets an internal campaign poll that shows him at 34 percent, Corbett at 37 percent, and a whopping 29 percent undecided. Morganelli believes he can showcase his tough anti-crime record as a DA, and he calls for an “independent counsel” to investigate Bonusgate, saying a Republican politico like Corbett cannot be trusted to investigate Republican legislators.
Auditor General Jack Wagner, a Pittsburgh Democrat, hopes for an easy cruise to reelection in 2008. He just might get it. Wagner, a former Pittsburgh city councilman and state senator, is no stranger to PA politics. He was picked by then State Treasurer Bob Casey to be his running-mate for Lieutenant Governor in 2002. Both Casey and Wagner lost those nomination battles, but Wagner parlayed that into a statewide run for Auditor General, winning big in 2004. A Vietnam veteran often recognized for his work on behalf of veterans, Wagner has used his office to conduct visible state audits that attract local media attention around the state.
Many Republicans had hoped that David Sanko, chief of staff to former Gov. Mark Schweiker and later Rendell’s PEMA (PA Emergency Management) director, would take on Wagner. But Sanko, who had returned home to Bucks County to be that county’s chief operating officer, announced this week that he would not run for public office, citing bad timing for him personally. That leaves Chet Beiler, the Republican chair of Lancaster County, as the only announced challenger. Beiler is a successful businessman who grew up on family farm in Amish country and built a company called Amish Country Gazebos that was featured on an episode of the TV show “Extreme Makeover Home Edition.” Beiler has sought public office before, like Auditor General and State Senate, but it looks like he now has the GOP nomination to himself. He comes from an increasingly important part of the state, but Beiler will need an infusion of cash to become better known in the populace southeastern and southwestern ends of the state.
When former State Treasurer Bob Casey resigned his office last year to take the oath as a U.S. Senator, the governor appointed a state treasurer, Robin Weissmann, who pledged not to seek office in 2008. That gives both parties a chance to win an “open” statewide seat. On the Democratic side, four candidates are vying for the nomination: John Cordisco, the Democratic chair of Bucks County; State Rep. Jennifer Mann, a Lehigh County legislator; Rob McCord, a venture capitalist from Montgomery County; and Dennis Morrison-Wesley, an African American cable TV salesman in Harrisburg who once worked for Merrill Lynch until, he says, he was fired for supporting Casey over Santorum, charges denied by the company.
Arguably, Mann from Allentown is the best known of the bunch, although she is hardly a statewide figure. She is generally regarded as a pro-business centrist Democrat who supports abortion rights, and, as the only woman (so far) in the race she can capitalize on the absence of any woman running statewide in 2008. McCord is the money candidate. The suburban Philly businessman reportedly has the ability, and the desire, to pump more than a million of his own dollars into the campaign. Cordisco, a former Bucks County state legislator, has already had word battles with his fellow Philadelphian, accusing McCord of taking money from those who want to manage monies handled by the Treasurer. McCord says Cordisco voted for legislative pay raises when he was in the state House and is, therefore, unelectable. Absent from the crowded ballot is any candidate from west of the Susquehanna River. Allegheny County Treasurer John Weinstein has toyed with the idea, but no formal announcement yet from someone who is generally well-known in this region. Another potential candidate with a strong base and lots of money is former Philadelphia mayoral candidate Tom Knox. Stay tuned. This race hasn’t yet jelled.
The Republicans seem to have their candidate for State Treasurer: former Montgomery County commissioner Thomas Jay Ellis. Ellis is a bond attorney, who is now caught up in a politically-charged civil lawsuit involving rival tax collection companies, one of which was hired on a no-bid basis by the Montgomery commissioners to replace the other. While Ellis has not been sued himself, the losing company wants to take his sworn deposition. He has refused, arguing a conflict of interest, but a federal judge appears to think otherwise, especially since Ellis is no longer a commissioner.
State House Could Party Switch:
The Democrats control the State House by just one vote, 102 to 101, and that margin of control could be in great jeopardy this year. [The State Senate is 29 Republican to 21 Democrats, and nobody thinks that will change much in 2008]. Last time I checked, about 24 legislators were retiring this year, including five senators: Gib Armstrong, a Lancaster County Republican; Jerry LaValle, a Beaver County Democrat; Roger Madigan, a Bradford County Republican; Terry Punt, a Franklin County Republican; and Connie Williams, a Montgomery County Democrat. The first four seats are likely to stay in the same party, but the Williams’ seat in suburban Philadelphia could be a real battleground with both parties seeking to field strong candidates.
On the House side, 19 representatives are stepping down, some to run for the state Senate like Sean Ramaley (D/Beaver), Daylin Leach (D/Mongtomery), and Steven Cappelli (R/Lycoming). Democrats think they have a shot at three House seats held by Republicans who are retiring in Bucks (David Steil) and Chester Counties (Arthur Hershey & Carole Rubley), while Republicans think they can retake Leach’s seat and the seat held by Tom Tangretti (D/Westmoreland). After the dust settles on April 22, other seats could be in play as well, including that of the House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (D/Greene). Bottom line is that the state House is up for grabs.
The most surprising retirement announcement this last month was that of Lisa Bennington, a 31-year old freshman Democratic legislator from Pittsburgh, who (along with Chelsa Wagner and Deberah Kula) returned women to the House from southwestern PA in 2006. Bennington says she underestimated the wasted time in Harrisburg and, frankly, would just prefer to grow her family law practice. Ironically, the man she beat in the Democratic primary, Frank Pistella, is trying to make a comeback, although lots of other candidates are circulating petitions as well.
By way of comparison, in 2006 some 31 incumbents decided not to seek reelection (compared to 24 this year) and another 24 incumbents were defeated at the polls in the wake of the pay raise controversy. That ushered in 55 new legislators (out of the 253), a better than 20 percent change. Nobody expects that kind of turnover in 2008.
Could “Bonusgate” Alter the Political Equation:
The media is calling it Bonusgate, the use of taxpayer dollars to reward legislative staff for the political work they did on a variety of campaigns in 2006. This, of course, is illegal. While the law back then allowed for bonus dollars to reward legislative work, there is no question that senior legislators could not use these dollars to “thank” staffers for their campaign work. After their successful take-over of the House, House Democratic leaders awarded $1.9 million in bonus money to 717 employees, while the House Republicans gave out $270,000 to 45 staffers. Senate Republicans gave out $180,000 in bonuses to 16 employees, while Senate Democrats gave out $38,000 to 12 staffers.
Did senior House and Senate legislative leaders hand out bonuses to reward staffers for their political work? Nobody knows, but Attorney General Corbett has convened a grand jury to investigate. Corbett says he’s looking at all four caucuses, but some Democrats don’t believe it. They think Corbett will target Democrats to improve his reelection chances and to position himself for a gubernatorial run in 2010. Corbett’s Democratic opponent this year, John Morganelli, says legislative corruption needs to be investigated fully without regard to politics, and he argues that an independent special counsel should be named to conduct such an investigation.
Most of the public attention has been on the House Democrats, who did dole out more than double the cash of their GOP counterparts. House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese has suggested that he was really not in the loop on these bonus awards in 2006. But whether intended or not, that implicitly suggests that it was the work of then second-ranking Democrat, former state Rep. Mike Veon of Beaver County, who was defeated in 2006 and senior staffers. After the public furor broke over the bonuses, DeWeese brought in former Philadelphia assistant DA William Chadwick to review operations, sort through what happened, and cooperate with Corbett and the grand jury on the investigation.
In November, DeWeese fired seven senior Democratic staff people, including Mike Manzo, his chief of staff, and Scott Brubaker, director of staffing and administration, both of whom appear to have been involved in the bonus awards.
Nobody really knows how this will all play out, although speculation is hot in Harrisburg that charges are soon-to-come. For his part, DeWeese says he is running for reelection for a 17th term – and, so far at least, House Democrats have not stripped him of his position as their leader. Republican Greg Hopkins of Greene County, who nearly upended DeWeese in 2006, is running again. Hopkins is a 36-year old assistant football coach for the Los Angeles Avengers, an Arena Football League, where he was star player for a number of years. He was also a football player at Waynesburg Central High School and Slippery Rock University, and got 8,994 votes to DeWeese’s 10,035, the closest race for DeWeese in a long time.
Whether any other Democratic legislators are implicated by Bonusgate remains to be seen. And there is also the possibility that some Republican legislators could be affected as well, if Corbett follows through with his stated intention to let the chips fall where they may. But right now, it’s all just speculation and radio talk show fodder.
Republicans Attempt a Congressional Comeback:
Once upon a time, Melissa Hart was the Republican darling of PA politics. The first GOP woman elected to Congress from the state, Hart always upended her naysayers, winning races when no one expected it. Her GOP colleagues in Washington embraced her, giving her visible leadership positions and coming to her aid when asked. Then in 2006 along came Jason Altmire, a pro-life, pro-gun, anti-Bush, anti-war Democrat, who rather suddenly attracted hundreds of thousands of dollars from those smelling blood. In the end, Altmire defeated Hart by 8,500 votes out of 254,000 cast. Now Hart wants a rematch, always difficult to do. But history teaches that Melissa Hart is never to be underestimated.
Pennsylvania was a congressional disaster for Republicans in 2006. Dems targeted five incumbent Republicans and defeated four out of five. Hart, who represented parts of six counties north and west of Pittsburgh, was one of them. The other Democratic winners: Patrick Murphy (who won by 1,500 votes) and Joe Sestak (who won by 33,000 votes) in suburban Philadelphia and Chris Carney (who won by 12,000 votes) in northeast/north central PA.
Republicans dream of retaking these seats, although Altmire-Hart is the only rerun of the last show. Murphy has four GOP challengers looking to take him on: Tom Lingenfelter, Jeff Madden, Tom Manion, and Joseph Montone. A former Marine, Manion, who lost a son in Iraq, is a strong supporter of the war and has the support of the congressman Murphy defeated, former U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick. Sestak has two challengers, Wendell Craig Williams and Joe Breslin. Williams has been endorsed by Delaware County GOP leaders and has an impressive resume as an assistant U.S. attorney and Gulf War veteran. Carney has four opponents right now, including Chris Hackett, David Haire, Dan Meuser, and Paul Swiderski. Insiders tell me Meuser and Hackett are the leading challengers at the moment.
Can these four freshman Democrats be defeated? Of course. But they each start the year with big cash advantages over their prospective challengers and the likelihood that more Democrats will turn out to vote during a presidential election year. But we’ll keep our eyes on these seats throughout the year.
Republicans also hope to defeat another incumbent Democratic congressman. Despite at least a public reticence to say he’s running, Republicans are trying to get Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run against U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski. Barletta has attracted national attention for his strong stand against illegal immigrants. Barletta could give Kanjorski a real race. Stay tuned.
The surprise retirement of U.S. Rep. John Peterson, a Republican from one of the largest geographic districts that stretches across northern PA, gives some Democrats hope they can win an open seat. But don’t count on it. Nonetheless, a lot of candidates in both parties have caught the bug. Among the Republicans, seven candidates are in the running: former Centre County commissioner Chris Exarchos, Elk County coroner Lou Radkowski, State College businessman Matt Shaner, Woodward Township (Lycoming) supervisor Jeff Stroehman, Clarion mayor John Stroup, Centre County Republican chairman G. T. Thompson, and Bigler (Clearfield) financial consultant Derek Walker. On the Democratic side, the candidates include Centre County native, Iraqi War veteran and former news correspondent Bill Cahir, Clearfield County commissioner Mark McCracken, and Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello.
Democrats are lining up to take on two Republican incumbents who represent Democratic-leaning districts, but at this stage nobody is predicting any upsets. U.S. Rep. Phil English, an Erie Republican, will face one of four Democrats in his northwestern PA district: Lake Erie Arboretum director Kathy Dahlkemper, Erie County councilman Kyle Foust, Erie attorney Tom Myers, and Erie lay minister Mike Waltner. In southwestern PA, U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, a suburban Pittsburgh Republican, will end up being challenged by Army Reserve Col. Wayne Dudding of Robinson, Mt. Lebanon consultant and former teacher Beth Hafer (daughter of Barbara Hafer), Monroeville businessman Steve O’Donnell, Penn Hills school director Erin Vecchio, and Upper St. Clair insurance executive Brien Wall. As these and other congressional races shape up – after the February 12 deadline for filing nominating petitions – I’ll have much more on these battles.
There is always much more to write about – politics in Allegheny County and the City of Pittsburgh, for example – but let’s bring this PSF to an end until another day. It’s almost time for the Super Bowl, which cannot be as super as it might have been had the Steelers been in it. Once again, if you have any comments (off the record) to share with me, please do get back in touch. Enjoy Super Duper Tuesday!
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
A Presidential Rundown
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
When you were growing up, your parents probably told you that in polite conversation, stay away from three topics: race, religion, and politics. In a campaign for the White House, you expect politics to be front and center, so let's substitute the word gender. I have never seen an election for any office that has been so dominated by race, religion, and gender - and despite all the good words about "rising above" this stuff, the subterranean noise about this threatens to undermine the much more important debate about which candidate is the most qualified to move the United States ahead in the next four years.
In this first PSF ("Politically Savvy Friends") email in many months, I will touch on that subject and more from my "Beyond the Washington DC Beltway" perspective and then comment on this year's upcoming political battles in Pennsylvania. As many of you know, I spent fourteen years on Capitol Hill as chief of staff to a PA congressman - and then I returned home where I have the pleasure of wearing lots of hats in academia, the private sector, and the media. I do a lot of public speaking to organizations throughout the year, and this PSF e-letter helps synthesize my thoughts and hopefully gives you some cocktail talk.
Most of you on this mailing list have received PSFs in the past and (judging by your emails back to me) seem to welcome them, but if you prefer not to get them, use the unsubscribe key below. I don't want to be anyone's SPAM. More importantly, I welcome your comments back - and I especially appreciate a "hot tip" now and then about something "political." Email me at delano.jon@gmail.com. Thanks for being my eyes and ears out there.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
The Race for the White House:
This has been an extraordinary political season in so many ways, and maybe that's not surprising. This is the first time since 1952 that we don't have a previously nationally elected figure running for president. Despite what some Democrats say, this race is wide open. That's because I don't believe that George W. Bush is really the issue in 2008. Most Americans, regardless of party, are ready to move on - and, if the Republicans play this right, they can retain the White House on November 4. And Democrats are fully capable of self-destructing over the stupidest things - to wit, this picayune tantrum (as seen on CNN's recent debate) by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
In the end, remember this election depends on electoral votes, not the popular vote. We learned that well in 2000 when George Bush became the first president since Benjamin Harrison in 1888 to win without the popular vote -- and it could have been repeated in 2004 when John Kerry would have been president, with a minority of the popular vote, had he just carried the state of Ohio - a switch of 60,000 votes would have made the difference.
As I look at the electoral vote in 2008, it's pretty hard for the Republican candidate, whoever he is, not to be ahead right now of whatever Democrat gets the nod. That's because Republican voting states (the "red" states) outnumber Democratic voting states (the "blue" states). One calculation I saw has the GOP already at 213 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Such a scenario brings the battle back to the states that typically decide these elections: Florida (27 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Oregon (7), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), and New Mexico (5). Of course, depending on the nominee, other states could be up for grabs like New Jersey (15) and Missouri (11).
My point is not to predict the winner but to suggest that it's not a done deal for the Democrats by any stretch. This election is just getting started.
The Republican Battle Goes On and On and On:
It's hard to remember the last time when Republican voters had such a wide choice of candidates with no clear front-runner at this stage of the campaign. John McCain has won New Hampshire and South Carolina, giving him 38 delegates, while Mitt Romney has won Wyoming, Michigan, and Nevada giving him 66 delegates. Mike Huckabee, the Iowa winner, has 25 delegates. Considering there are 2,380 Republican delegates and only 156 have been chosen, this race is hardly over.
Toss in Rudy Giuliani, who has 1 delegate so far, and you have a foursome that is competing vigorously for delegates in Florida on January 29. By the way, in the delegate battle, some states in the GOP race are winner-take-all, such as Florida. That means the Republican who wins Florida gets all 57 delegates (the state lost half its delegates because it jumped ahead of Super Duper Tuesday, February 5). Other upcoming winner-take-all states include New York, Missouri, Arizona, New Jersey, Utah, Connecticut, etc. (The Democrats forbid winner-take-all, apportioning almost all their delegates).
While the media seems to have blessed McCain as the front-runner, it's pretty hard to draw that conclusion so far. After 21 states vote on February 5, the picture should be a lot clearer, although I still don't think any candidate will have a majority of delegates to win nomination at the end of that evening. By the way, 975 delegates will be chosen that day, about 41 percent of the total.
The Democratic Battle Gets Closer:
The Democratic nomination fight is down to three candidates, although many dismiss John Edwards, preferring a knockdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada. Michigan, won by Clinton, was stripped of all its delegates for starting early. But the proportionality rules of the Democratic Party (awarding pledged delegates generally through congressional districts) give Obama 57 delegates, Clinton 45 delegates, and Edwards 20 delegates. This does not count "super delegates," Democratic elected officials (like governors and members of Congress) some of whom have already picked their candidates and give Clinton the delegate lead right now. Of course, it takes 2,025 delegates to win nomination, so this is all so early.
South Carolina, with its sizeable African American vote, gave an easy win this Saturday to Obama. That sets up a major battle on Super Duper Tuesday (February 5) when 22 states from New York to California go to the polls. Forget Florida, which lost all its delegates because it jumped the queue. On Feb. 5, some 1,681 delegates are at stake, about 51 percent of all elected delegates. Wow.
Ironically, John Edwards can play a key role in this battle, if he wins enough votes to earn delegates. There's talk of him being a "king maker" at the convention, but that will require him to continue to get around 20 percent of the vote in the battles ahead. Will he? Still, after Super Duper Tuesday, it's very unlikely that either Clinton or Obama will have a majority of the delegate votes. Other big states like Virginia, Ohio, and Texas will vote later in February and early March. Pennsylvania with its 188 delegates does not vote until April 22.
Religion, Race & Gender:
(1) Religion Takes Front Stage
Americans always take religion seriously, or at least we say so. But the common mantra has been that religion should not a barrier to any individual's entry into politics. On the presidential level, however, the White House has almost always been a Protestant enclave, with only one Catholic ever elected president.
When John F. Kennedy campaigned, he had to assure folks that he would not take orders from a foreign pope. This year, Mitt Romney has had to make a similar pledge that the Mormon Church would not dictate his government decisions. Arguably, Romney has had a more difficult challenge than Kennedy. By 1960, Catholics were well accepted as mainstream Christians. For some, that is not yet true of Mormons, a religion difficult for many to understand, in part because of its own secrecy rules, its earlier (and now rejected) views on polygamy, race, and gender, and its peculiar origins (frankly, something one could say about most religions) through founder Joseph Smith's assertion in the 1820s that the angel Moroni led him to tablets of the Book of Mormon, which Mormons believe is Holy Scripture, along with the Bible. Although Mormons call themselves Christians, many Christians do not agree, some even calling it a sect.
Politically, Romney has had to assert that his church leaders will not dictate to him and, at the same time, reaffirm that he is a Christian, even a fundamentalist with whom Christian evangelicals in the Republican Party should feel comfortable. It's a difficult balancing act, but there's some evidence, so far at least, that Romney's religion has not been a barrier to winning primary votes.
The other religious aspect to Campaign 2008 has been Mike Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, who has no problem making references to his strong religious views. Now being a clergyman and a politician is hardly a new thing. When I worked in the Congress, I recall Cong. Robert Drinan (D/MA) was a Catholic priest, Cong. Bob Edgar (D/PA) was a Methodist minister, and Sen. John Danforth (R/MO) was an Episcopal priest. There may have been others, although the Vatican ordered Drinan to quit the House (which he did) so, as far as I know, no Catholic priests now serve in elected public positions.
Politically, Huckabee is the most culturally conservative candidate in the GOP race - and would seem a natural for Christian conservatives. But his populist economic policies, including support for some tax increases when he was governor of Arkansas, are sometimes at odds with "true" conservatives. While a clergyman running for public office troubles some, it's hardly unusual - and I suspect Huckabee will rise and fall on his views and personality, not his religion.
On the Democratic front, Barack Obama has had to fight an email attack that he is really a Muslim based on claims that he attended a Muslim school as a child in Indonesia. I first saw these emails months ago and dismissed them as nonsense. [The charges first surfaced when Obama ran for the U.S. Senate in Illinois in 2002]. Obama's father was a Luo from Kenya, apparently a non-practicing Muslim who had no real impact on his son's religious upbringing since he separated from Obama's mother when Obama was two, and later returned home to Kenya. Obama's mother then married an Indonesian foreign student, a Muslim, and the family moved to Jakarta when Obama was six. Obama did attend both a Catholic school and a public school there until he was ten, but his campaign insists it was not a Muslim religious school, a so-called madrassa where Muslims are taught to hate non-Muslims as infidels.
More importantly, at age ten, Obama returned home to Hawaii to live with his white maternal grandparents and attend a private, non-sectarian college prep school in Honolulu founded by Christian missionaries. In recent years, Obama has acknowledged that he didn't grow up in any particular religious faith but came to Jesus Christ in his 20s where he was baptized and has remained a congregant at the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago.
Politically, Obama and his campaign have shot back at the subterranean internet emails that link him to Islam. That his middle name is Hussein thickens the alleged cover-up of his Muslim roots, but the fact that Obama shares Saddam's name is of no more relevance than that my middle name ("William") is shared by plenty of scurrilous people. [By the way, most of us don't get to name ourselves, so no one should ever be blamed for that]. I have seen no evidence whatsoever that Obama is anything but what he says he is - a committed believing Christian. Moreover, even if Obama were a Muslim (which he is not), why would that be a "political issue" any more than Kennedy's Catholicism or Romney's Mormonism? Let's move on.
(2) Race Rears Its Color:
Nothing offends me more than the notion that race motivates voters, but none of us is naove. Almost all Americans take pride that this year an African American - well, actually he's half white and half black - is a major contender for the presidency of the United States. Win or lose, Barack Obama's political success this year is a monumental testament to America's political maturity.
Few things are more divisive than race, and when candidates (black or white) appeal for support on racial lines, it can cause earthquakes in the political groundscape. At the beginning of this campaign, the Democratic candidates did all they could to avoid any references to race. It didn't hurt that Hillary Clinton and her husband has always had strong ties to the black community.
So what changed? Well, some think the increasingly competitive race between Obama and Clinton encouraged both sides to find some advantage in racial politics. For Obama, he wanted to consolidate black voters behind his campaign where, early on, Clinton was beating him overwhelmingly. In a number of states, African Americans are a key to the Democratic nomination, and Obama needs those voters.
The trick for Obama is how to appeal to black voters without losing white voters. South Carolina was the first real test of that where half the Democratic voters were black. Exit polls showed that Obama has accomplished what he wanted - nearly 80 percent of African American voters in that state voted for Obama, but in the process he lost 76 percent of the white votes, something he cannot afford to do in upcoming primaries.
For Clinton, the challenge has been equally difficult. She needs African Americans in the primary for sure, but she needs those voters even more in November. After Obama accused Hillary and Bill Clinton of injecting race into this campaign, the anti-Clinton media has had a field day attacking the Clintons. It's hard to pin-point anything overtly racial in Bill Clinton's comments, but it probably doesn't matter since enough folks were convinced that he was playing a "race card" to win white votes for Hillary that it hurt her among black voters and probably some whites, too.
In my view, both candidates need to step back from this racial precipice. It's perfectly legitimate to criticize Obama for abstaining on votes in the Illinois legislature, or for being anti-war and then pro-war, or for carrying water for a slum landlord, just as it's legitimate to criticize Clinton for being pro-war before she was anti-war, or for being on Wal-Mart's board of directors, or for being cozy with Washington lobbyists. Better still, how about a debate on who's best on the economy, health care, education, and jobs? Yeah, I know. I'm asking too much.
(3) Gender Politics at Work:
For millions of women, including members of my own family, the fact that a woman could be the next president of the United States is decidedly liberating. Just as we should take pride in an African American's progress on this front, so do most Americans welcome the possible breaking of America's most formidable glass ceiling. Of course, just as some ask if Obama is the "right" black candidate, many ask the same of Clinton.
Although women make up a slight majority of the population and an even larger percentage of the voting public, only 13 of 100 senators is female and 61 of 435 members of the House are female. That's about 14 percent when women represent 51 percent of the nation. This, of course, is a huge improvement over twenty years ago, but hardly proportionate to the number of women in the population. In contrast, African Americans are doing much better politically (although not there yet), now numbering 43 in the Congress, about 8 percent of the body when their percentage of the total population is about 13 percent.
For Hillary Clinton, women appear to make up a large percentage of her supporters, although Obama beat her among women voters in both Iowa and South Carolina. Her challenge has been to attract women to her camp, without alienating men. When at an early debate before New Hampshire, Obama and Edwards appeared to team up against her - and then some in the media went ballistic went she appeared "emotional" in response to a town meeting question - many women and some men, too, saw a "double standard" at work.
Some people tell me that it is easier to break a racial barrier than a gender one. I don't know because I cannot speak from experience in either case. But for Clinton to become the first woman president, she is going to have to win women voters just as Obama appears to be winning black voters. The verdict is out on that.
PENNSYLVANIA - to be continued.
This PSF is long enough, so allow me to hold my Pennsylvania political update until the next one, after today's Florida primary and hopefully before Super Tuesday next week.
As always, I welcome your comments, so please do email me (delano.jon@gmail.com) with your take on things. And, again, if you hear something interesting on the political front, drop me a note.
Friday, December 7, 2007
Cavorting with the PA Society
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Don't try to find a prominent Pennsylvania politician in their hometowns this weekend. That's because most of them are in New York City to schmooze with each other and the "wheelers and dealers" from Pittsburgh industry. It's call the annual Pennsylvania Society dinner at the Waldorf Astoria, but it's an excuse for politicians to enjoy each other and the money people while in the delightful environs of Manhattan during the Christmas season.
Now I admit I have attended some of those dinners (and other related events) over the years -- and, yes, it's great fun -- but there is something a little peculiar about Pennsylvania politicians and business leaders leaving the commonwealth in order to "make contacts" and "enjoy" each other's company.
The history of this weekend is fascinating to political insiders. Back in the late 1800s when Pennsylvania was solidly Republican, the PA Society gathering in New York was when the railroad, steel, and coal barons gathered, privately, to name their Republican candidates for state office.
This weekend's gathering is much more ecumenical, as it has been for decades, with Democrats just as visible as Republicans. Gone are the days when industry moguls named candidates for public office. Of course, they still play an important role -- money! So politicians flock to the Waldorf in hopes of connecting with the big money donors who will help fund their campaigns in the months ahead.
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is hosting an event (not a fundraiser) in NYC, as he done in past years, to "meet and greet" the state's business leaders, especially from Philadelphia, who can help boost his candidacy for governor in 2010. I am told that Onorato expects 300 to 500 people to drop by for his liquor and hors d'oevres. But just in case someone is NOT going to NYC this weekend, Onorato mailed invitations to around 8,000 people, including government leaders in all 67 counties of the state. Hmmmm, does anyone think he's not running for governor?
Of course, Dan is not the only one taking advantage of the gathering to spread around some holiday good will. But one thing is certain -- those that are hope to have a future in Pennsylvania politics. As for the rest of us, enjoy the snow this weekend!
Don't try to find a prominent Pennsylvania politician in their hometowns this weekend. That's because most of them are in New York City to schmooze with each other and the "wheelers and dealers" from Pittsburgh industry. It's call the annual Pennsylvania Society dinner at the Waldorf Astoria, but it's an excuse for politicians to enjoy each other and the money people while in the delightful environs of Manhattan during the Christmas season.
Now I admit I have attended some of those dinners (and other related events) over the years -- and, yes, it's great fun -- but there is something a little peculiar about Pennsylvania politicians and business leaders leaving the commonwealth in order to "make contacts" and "enjoy" each other's company.
The history of this weekend is fascinating to political insiders. Back in the late 1800s when Pennsylvania was solidly Republican, the PA Society gathering in New York was when the railroad, steel, and coal barons gathered, privately, to name their Republican candidates for state office.
This weekend's gathering is much more ecumenical, as it has been for decades, with Democrats just as visible as Republicans. Gone are the days when industry moguls named candidates for public office. Of course, they still play an important role -- money! So politicians flock to the Waldorf in hopes of connecting with the big money donors who will help fund their campaigns in the months ahead.
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is hosting an event (not a fundraiser) in NYC, as he done in past years, to "meet and greet" the state's business leaders, especially from Philadelphia, who can help boost his candidacy for governor in 2010. I am told that Onorato expects 300 to 500 people to drop by for his liquor and hors d'oevres. But just in case someone is NOT going to NYC this weekend, Onorato mailed invitations to around 8,000 people, including government leaders in all 67 counties of the state. Hmmmm, does anyone think he's not running for governor?
Of course, Dan is not the only one taking advantage of the gathering to spread around some holiday good will. But one thing is certain -- those that are hope to have a future in Pennsylvania politics. As for the rest of us, enjoy the snow this weekend!
Monday, November 5, 2007
Is the Election Over or Just Beginning?
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Election Day 2007 may prove to be anti-climatic, particularly since almost everyone thinks Luke Ravenstahl will win election to serve out the term of the late Mayor Bob O'Connor as mayor of Pittsburgh.
Republican Mark DeSantis, however, has surprised almost everyone with a stronger-than-expected campaign, rooted both in some Democratic discontent with Ravenstahl's performance and DeSantis' own articulate position on issues. On economic issues, DeSantis is clearly the more conservative of the two candidates, but he is much more liberal on hot-button social issues than Ravenstahl.
That makes DeSantis a serious challenger in certain parts of the city like Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, and Point Breeze where Democrats like their Democrats to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights. But carrying the 14th Ward and even the 7th or 11th Wards would hardly be enough for DeSantis to win the mayor's office.
DeSantis needs two things to happen: traditional Democrats (many socially conservative) need to reject Luke by either voting for Mark or skipping this race and Republicans (nearly 25,000 of them) need to show up to vote, something they do not often do in this overwhelmingly Democratic city.
The most likely outcome is that Luke wins, but here the issue becomes: Is the Election Over or Just Beginning?
By all accounts, Ravenstahl should do at least as well as Bob O'Connor did two years ago. After all, O'Connor coming off a divisive Democratic primary against two strong Democrats, Bill Peduto and Michael Lamb, cruised to a 67% win in November 2005. Ravenstahl, who had no Democratic opposition last spring, should get at least that.
If Luke gets more than 67% -- indeed, if he breaks into the 70% range where many of us thought he would be last spring -- then he sends a strong signal to fellow Democrats that the NEXT real election (the Democratic mayoral primary) 18 months from now is going to be pretty solid for Ravenstahl.
In contrast, the closer DeSantis holds Ravenstahl's margin to 60%, the greater the likelihood that the next 18 months will be all about which Dems are positioned to take Luke on in May 2009. If Luke falls below 60%, watch for the spin to be that he really lost by winning, setting himself up for opposition for the next two years, perhaps even a rematch against DeSantis in 2009.
I cannot predict this election. Bad weather might keep only the most hearty and devoted voter from voting -- but does that favor Ravenstahl with support from traditional Democrats who always vote or DeSantis whose voters, arguably, are more committed than Luke's? Stay tuned, but surely as the sun comes up on Wednesday, we will have a story to tell.
Election Day 2007 may prove to be anti-climatic, particularly since almost everyone thinks Luke Ravenstahl will win election to serve out the term of the late Mayor Bob O'Connor as mayor of Pittsburgh.
Republican Mark DeSantis, however, has surprised almost everyone with a stronger-than-expected campaign, rooted both in some Democratic discontent with Ravenstahl's performance and DeSantis' own articulate position on issues. On economic issues, DeSantis is clearly the more conservative of the two candidates, but he is much more liberal on hot-button social issues than Ravenstahl.
That makes DeSantis a serious challenger in certain parts of the city like Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, and Point Breeze where Democrats like their Democrats to be pro-choice and pro-gay rights. But carrying the 14th Ward and even the 7th or 11th Wards would hardly be enough for DeSantis to win the mayor's office.
DeSantis needs two things to happen: traditional Democrats (many socially conservative) need to reject Luke by either voting for Mark or skipping this race and Republicans (nearly 25,000 of them) need to show up to vote, something they do not often do in this overwhelmingly Democratic city.
The most likely outcome is that Luke wins, but here the issue becomes: Is the Election Over or Just Beginning?
By all accounts, Ravenstahl should do at least as well as Bob O'Connor did two years ago. After all, O'Connor coming off a divisive Democratic primary against two strong Democrats, Bill Peduto and Michael Lamb, cruised to a 67% win in November 2005. Ravenstahl, who had no Democratic opposition last spring, should get at least that.
If Luke gets more than 67% -- indeed, if he breaks into the 70% range where many of us thought he would be last spring -- then he sends a strong signal to fellow Democrats that the NEXT real election (the Democratic mayoral primary) 18 months from now is going to be pretty solid for Ravenstahl.
In contrast, the closer DeSantis holds Ravenstahl's margin to 60%, the greater the likelihood that the next 18 months will be all about which Dems are positioned to take Luke on in May 2009. If Luke falls below 60%, watch for the spin to be that he really lost by winning, setting himself up for opposition for the next two years, perhaps even a rematch against DeSantis in 2009.
I cannot predict this election. Bad weather might keep only the most hearty and devoted voter from voting -- but does that favor Ravenstahl with support from traditional Democrats who always vote or DeSantis whose voters, arguably, are more committed than Luke's? Stay tuned, but surely as the sun comes up on Wednesday, we will have a story to tell.
Thursday, October 11, 2007
DeSantis Campaign Ads Previewed
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
If you missed my story last night on KDKA-TV, feel free to click http://kdka.com/video/?id=32817@kdka.dayport.com to see a sneak preview of Mark DeSantis' campaign ads. DeSantis allowed me to watch and listen to several of his campaign ads, as long as I didn't air the entire ads in advance of their publication. That was fair, since in a 90-second TV story I couldn't post the entire ad anyway.
Judge for yourself, but my take is that his approach for an initial kick-off ad makes some sense, although I think all of this may be too little, too late. DeSantis has decided to take head on the fundamental question of whether a Republican has a chance of getting elected in the city of Pittsburgh where something like 147,000 Democrats outnumber 29,000 Republicans and 25,000 Independents. The theme of these first radio and TV ads, simply put, is that DeSantis does have a chance and that if the "no chance crowd" had won we would not have had Renaissance I and II and great city fathers like David L. Lawrence and Richard S. Caliguiri.
Getting people to believe that a vote for DeSantis is not a total waste of a vote is a critical first step. The voting public likes to vote for winners, and right now Luke Ravenstahl, despite all the miscues, looks like the November 6 winner. One series of ads won't turn that around, but it's a start.
The next step for DeSantis is to convince Democrats that he is worthy of their vote. His campaign mailing to Democrats this week suggests that sometimes the candidate who best reflects Democratic values "isn't always a Democrat." It's a clever approach, but it requires Democrats to buy into the notion that Ravenstahl is really an ultra-conservative, anti-gay, anti-choice, pro-war clone of George W. Bush. I don't think it will sell, except to the most liberal of Democrats who already object to Luke on other grounds.
None of the DeSantis ads that I previewed over at Kolbrener, the ad agency that is making its first real foray into political campaigns, directly attack Luke Ravenstahl. That defies conventional wisdom, which would suggest some hard-hitting attack ads are needed to shake Democrats from their comfort level with Luke. Maybe they have something in the works, but for the moment it's all positive about Mark.
If DeSantis had money for a 10-week ad campaign, introducing the candidate in a positive way before going after the incumbent is always the best approach. But this campaign is down to just 3+ weeks. The few TV and radio ads I saw, while creative and well done, may not be enough to turn things around for DeSantis in such a short period of time. Still, I give the Republican a lot of credit for trying. It's good to see a race for mayor in November 2007 when most people in town think the real race is 18 months away in the Democratic primary of May 2009.
And that's exactly what the Ravenstahl team thinks, too, which helps explain why they do not (yet) plan to run radio and TV ads this fall, although look for plenty of lawn signs and some direct mail. The Ravenstahl theory is sound. If you're going to win anyways and don't really care whether the margin is 60% or 70%, why not save your million bucks for the battle that really counts. Any Democrat looking to take on Ravenstahl will have to think real hard if the incumbent has that kind of money in his warchest before the campaign even begins.
Bottom line. DeSantis' campaign ads have the potential to make this race more visible among rank-and-file Pittsburgh voters -- all 50,000 or 60,000 that will bother to vote -- but it may all be prelude to political battles ahead.
If you missed my story last night on KDKA-TV, feel free to click http://kdka.com/video/?id=32817@kdka.dayport.com to see a sneak preview of Mark DeSantis' campaign ads. DeSantis allowed me to watch and listen to several of his campaign ads, as long as I didn't air the entire ads in advance of their publication. That was fair, since in a 90-second TV story I couldn't post the entire ad anyway.
Judge for yourself, but my take is that his approach for an initial kick-off ad makes some sense, although I think all of this may be too little, too late. DeSantis has decided to take head on the fundamental question of whether a Republican has a chance of getting elected in the city of Pittsburgh where something like 147,000 Democrats outnumber 29,000 Republicans and 25,000 Independents. The theme of these first radio and TV ads, simply put, is that DeSantis does have a chance and that if the "no chance crowd" had won we would not have had Renaissance I and II and great city fathers like David L. Lawrence and Richard S. Caliguiri.
Getting people to believe that a vote for DeSantis is not a total waste of a vote is a critical first step. The voting public likes to vote for winners, and right now Luke Ravenstahl, despite all the miscues, looks like the November 6 winner. One series of ads won't turn that around, but it's a start.
The next step for DeSantis is to convince Democrats that he is worthy of their vote. His campaign mailing to Democrats this week suggests that sometimes the candidate who best reflects Democratic values "isn't always a Democrat." It's a clever approach, but it requires Democrats to buy into the notion that Ravenstahl is really an ultra-conservative, anti-gay, anti-choice, pro-war clone of George W. Bush. I don't think it will sell, except to the most liberal of Democrats who already object to Luke on other grounds.
None of the DeSantis ads that I previewed over at Kolbrener, the ad agency that is making its first real foray into political campaigns, directly attack Luke Ravenstahl. That defies conventional wisdom, which would suggest some hard-hitting attack ads are needed to shake Democrats from their comfort level with Luke. Maybe they have something in the works, but for the moment it's all positive about Mark.
If DeSantis had money for a 10-week ad campaign, introducing the candidate in a positive way before going after the incumbent is always the best approach. But this campaign is down to just 3+ weeks. The few TV and radio ads I saw, while creative and well done, may not be enough to turn things around for DeSantis in such a short period of time. Still, I give the Republican a lot of credit for trying. It's good to see a race for mayor in November 2007 when most people in town think the real race is 18 months away in the Democratic primary of May 2009.
And that's exactly what the Ravenstahl team thinks, too, which helps explain why they do not (yet) plan to run radio and TV ads this fall, although look for plenty of lawn signs and some direct mail. The Ravenstahl theory is sound. If you're going to win anyways and don't really care whether the margin is 60% or 70%, why not save your million bucks for the battle that really counts. Any Democrat looking to take on Ravenstahl will have to think real hard if the incumbent has that kind of money in his warchest before the campaign even begins.
Bottom line. DeSantis' campaign ads have the potential to make this race more visible among rank-and-file Pittsburgh voters -- all 50,000 or 60,000 that will bother to vote -- but it may all be prelude to political battles ahead.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Apology Issued to Luke from ICMA
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Ho-hum. Believe it or not, we have an election four weeks from today. Yes, a few lawn signs have started to sprout around the region, but the radio and television airwaves have been surprisingly quiet. That won't last for long. I understand the DeSantis for Mayor campaign will launch its radio commercials later this week with television ads soon to follow, probably early next week.
Last night, I watched the Post Gazette editorial board's mayoral debate between Luke Ravenstahl and Mark DeSantis (along with a Libertarian and Socialist Worker). The format did not lend itself to a back-and-forth between the two major candidates, but both did manage to get a lick in on each other. Truthfully, I was not overwhelmed by either -- and that, ultimately, turns out to be a plus for Ravenstahl. DeSantis needs a stronger performance if he's to have any chance in upsetting the incumbent. (Of course, who watches these debates but us junkies).
On an unrelated note, Luke deserved -- and got -- an apology from the International City/County Management Association for, inaccurately, confirming that the mayor had snubbed 4,000 city and county managers gathered in Pittsburgh this week for their national convention. Early this year, the ICMA invited Luke to give brief remarks at their opening session on Sunday (same time as the Steelers game). When Luke didn't show, Marty Griffin of KDKA Radio heard from a city source that the mayor was a no-show, pissing off a lot of folks at the convention.
On Monday, Michele Frisby from the ICMA confirmed Marty's source (through me) and he reported it on his morning show on Tuesday. Later that morning, Ravenstahl called in to dispute the charge and pointed to an email his office sent on September 7 declining the invitation. Turns out the mayor is right. Here's the text of the apology sent directly to the mayor's office: "I am writing to acknowledge that at no time did Pittsburgh Mayor Ravenstahl formally agree to provide greetings during the conference opening general session of ICMA, the International City/County Management Association. The information I provided Jon Delano earlier this week was incorrect, and I apologize for any inconvenience it may have caused the mayor’s office." Michele called me personally and apologized to me. In reality, the apology is owed the mayor, and I am pleased the ICMA apologized to him.
In the scheme of things, this is hardly an important issue. The mayor should be free to choose what events he wants to attend or not. He told Marty that he was not at the Steelers game but spending some quiet time with his wife. I'm all for that, too!
The larger issues of Pittsburgh -- its financial health, its lack of jobs, its crime and vandalism, its management, and its future -- these are the legitimate items to debate, not whether the mayor attends a particular conference. So let the real debate begin. Pittsburgh deserves it.
Ho-hum. Believe it or not, we have an election four weeks from today. Yes, a few lawn signs have started to sprout around the region, but the radio and television airwaves have been surprisingly quiet. That won't last for long. I understand the DeSantis for Mayor campaign will launch its radio commercials later this week with television ads soon to follow, probably early next week.
Last night, I watched the Post Gazette editorial board's mayoral debate between Luke Ravenstahl and Mark DeSantis (along with a Libertarian and Socialist Worker). The format did not lend itself to a back-and-forth between the two major candidates, but both did manage to get a lick in on each other. Truthfully, I was not overwhelmed by either -- and that, ultimately, turns out to be a plus for Ravenstahl. DeSantis needs a stronger performance if he's to have any chance in upsetting the incumbent. (Of course, who watches these debates but us junkies).
On an unrelated note, Luke deserved -- and got -- an apology from the International City/County Management Association for, inaccurately, confirming that the mayor had snubbed 4,000 city and county managers gathered in Pittsburgh this week for their national convention. Early this year, the ICMA invited Luke to give brief remarks at their opening session on Sunday (same time as the Steelers game). When Luke didn't show, Marty Griffin of KDKA Radio heard from a city source that the mayor was a no-show, pissing off a lot of folks at the convention.
On Monday, Michele Frisby from the ICMA confirmed Marty's source (through me) and he reported it on his morning show on Tuesday. Later that morning, Ravenstahl called in to dispute the charge and pointed to an email his office sent on September 7 declining the invitation. Turns out the mayor is right. Here's the text of the apology sent directly to the mayor's office: "I am writing to acknowledge that at no time did Pittsburgh Mayor Ravenstahl formally agree to provide greetings during the conference opening general session of ICMA, the International City/County Management Association. The information I provided Jon Delano earlier this week was incorrect, and I apologize for any inconvenience it may have caused the mayor’s office." Michele called me personally and apologized to me. In reality, the apology is owed the mayor, and I am pleased the ICMA apologized to him.
In the scheme of things, this is hardly an important issue. The mayor should be free to choose what events he wants to attend or not. He told Marty that he was not at the Steelers game but spending some quiet time with his wife. I'm all for that, too!
The larger issues of Pittsburgh -- its financial health, its lack of jobs, its crime and vandalism, its management, and its future -- these are the legitimate items to debate, not whether the mayor attends a particular conference. So let the real debate begin. Pittsburgh deserves it.
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