Dear Politically Savvy Friend,
In the end, he made it seem so easy. Barack Hussein Obama -- yes, a man with an Arab or Muslim middle name -- won the presidency of the United States by more than 7.5 million popular votes and an Electoral College landslide, or what certainly looks like a landslide after President Bush's narrow wins in 2000 and 2004. President-elect Obama did it the old-fashioned way -- issues, shoe leather, volunteers, and, yes, lots of money!
THE PRESIDENCY
Pennsylvania Summary:
Early Tuesday evening, it was clear to many of us that Obama’s coalition of supporters would put him over the top. Once the “must-win” state of Pennsylvania was denied to John McCain, it was difficult to envision an electoral scenario that could propel the Republican to the White House. McCain's political nail in the coffin occurred shortly thereafter when the neighboring state of Ohio cast its lot with Obama. From that moment on, it was only a matter of hours until enough electoral votes were declared to give the Democrat his victory at 11:01 pm ET. As McCain delivered his concession speech, Florida came through for Obama as well, giving him a trifecta -- three of the three must-win states.
Obama's win in this Pennsylvania was impressive. With 98% of the votes counted, Obama defeated McCain by 11 points: 3.16 million votes to 2.52 million or 55% to 44% [Ralph Nader and Bob Barr split one percent of the vote] -- or a margin of around 644,000 votes out of the 5,745,000 votes cast yesterday. The last time a presidential candidate won by that big a margin in Pennsylvania was 36 years ago when Richard Nixon defeated George McGovern in 1972 by 907,000 votes.
So how did Obama do this here? Simply put, he clobbered McCain in Philadelphia and its Republican suburbs -- and he racked up wins in the urban counties around the state like Allegheny (Pittsburgh), Cambria (Johnstown), Centre (State College),Dauphin (Harrisburg), Erie (Erie), Lackawanna (Scranton), Lehigh (Allentown), Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre), and Northampton (Bethlehem). In the end, it didn't matter that most of the rest of Pennsylvania voted Republican.
Still, in many ways, this PA election was the tale of two regions: southeastern PA and southwestern PA. Obama overwhelmed McCain in one – and performed worst than some expected in the other. His biggest win was the city of Philadelphia, where Obama did better than John Kerry, who had set the record with a 414,000-vote margin. Obama broke that record Tuesday, winning the city by a massive 458,784 votes (unofficially). While not the 500,000-vote margin the governor would have loved, it was mighty convincing! Equally important, in the four bedroom counties outside Philly, Obama swept it all, winning three suburban Republican counties. He won Bucks County by 28,000; he won Chester County by 22,000; he won Delaware County by 59,000; and he won Montgomery County by a whopping 86,000 votes.
Southwest PA Plays Hard to Get:
In southwestern PA, it was a different story. Allegheny County (Greater Pittsburgh) gave Obama his biggest victory, winning by 98,600 votes over McCain. [John Kerry won Allegheny County by 97,000 votes four years ago]. But the outlying counties were not so kind to Obama even though most are overwhelmingly Democratic. McCain actually did better than George W. Bush in 2004. McCain won Armstrong County by 7,000 votes; McCain won Beaver County by 2,500; McCain won Butler County by 23,000; McCain won Fayette County by 160 votes; McCain won Greene County by 86 votes; McCain won Indiana County by 2,500 votes; McCain won Lawrence County by 2,000 votes; McCain won Washington County by 4,400 votes; and McCain won Westmoreland County by 26,000 votes. Many of these counties have large Democratic majorities.
Was U.S. Rep. Jack Murtha right? Is it true that western PA (outside of Allegheny County and Cambria County) just couldn't vote for a bi-racial candidate for president? Well, pundits can debate that for years to come. Obviously, race plays some role. But I think a better explanation is the conservative nature of the Democratic voters in these outlying counties: pro-gun, pro-life, pro-religion, pro-small town America. Second, McCain and Palin practically lived here for the last two months with multiple visits designed to stress their identification with the concerns and lifestyle of this region.
The Obama campaign often gave the impression of ignoring southwestern PA while spreading love all over the southeast (Philadelphia). It may have been a smart strategy given limited time for their candidate. But, privately, local Democratic leaders in this region felt the Obama campaign was giving short shift to western PA. Nonetheless, the margin out of the five southeastern counties in the Philly area was an amazing 653,000 votes over McCain.
In the end, Obama did exactly what he had to do, even here in this region. When you subtract all those southwestern counties that voted against Obama from his big vote in Allegheny County, guess who's the winner? You got it. President-elect Obama still won this region, netting 30,000 votes from the 10-county area in this southwest corner of the commonwealth.
Pennsylvania Exit Polls:
So how did Obama do it, chalking up numbers unseen in 36 years of presidential politics in this state? Exit polls give some clues. On race, blacks voted for Obama 95% to 5%, but African Americans comprised only 13% of the PA electorate. What gave Obama his solid victory was a nearly even split among white voters, 48% for Obama to 51% for McCain. While Hispanics are not many in PA, Obama won 72% of them here, as well. In short, Obama did well in PA because he attracted voters of all races.
According to exit polls, Obama overwhelmingly won the young voters in Pennsylvania, winning 66% of those 18 to 24 years of age and 64% of those between 25 and 30. But the president-elect also attracted support of some of the older folks, winning 57% of those between 50 and 65. As for the coveted 65+ crowd, Obama split that group evenly, 49% to 50%
.
While some Catholic clerics tried to influence their parishioners to vote pro-life, Catholic voters – just like Protestants – split right down the middle between Obama and McCain.
Finally, on issues, it was pretty clear-cut: 58% of those who said the economy was the most important issue opted for Obama; 66% of those who said the war in Iraq was most important voted Obama; 53% who named energy as the top issue supported Obama; and 71% who put health care at the top voted Obama.
STATEWIDE ROW OFFICES
Corbett Survives the Tidal Wave:
Attorney General Tom Corbett solidified his credentials as the Republican's best hope to capture the governorship in 2010. Despite the Democratic tide, the suburban Pittsburgh Republican won a 365,000 vote margin over his Democratic opponent, Northampton district attorney John Morganelli. Corbett had double the cash and with the help of his superb media consultant, John Brabender (yes, the architect of Rick Santorum's emergence on the political scene beginning in 1990) had the best television ads. Corbett's high profile on the Bonusgate scandal, especially in this region, certainly helped. While Allegheny County was voting for Obama by nearly a hundred thousand votes, Corbett actually carried his home county by 34,000 votes -- not bad for a Republican. What also made a big difference was Corbett's wins in suburban Philadelphia, where he defied the presidential trend by winning Bucks, Chester, and Delaware Counties and only losing Montgomery County by 2,400 votes.
Wagner Positions Himself for the Future:
Auditor General Jack Wagner, a Democrat, swept to a second term, adding to his own bona fides as a potential candidate for either governor or U.S. senator in 2010. It was a landslide for Wagner who defeated Republican gazebo manufacturer Chet Beiler by 1.27 million votes. Wow! Wagner, a generally conservative Democrat, blitzed the state, winning 41 of the state's 67 counties, a remarkable achievement for a Democrat. In fact, it didn’t take Wagner’s press folks to rush out a press release touting his 3.2 million votes as the most received by any PA candidate on the ballot on Tuesday. But it’s not a record. Bob Casey got 3.3 million votes in 2004 when he was reelected state treasurer.
Enter Rob McCord:
The open seat for state Treasurer will be filled by Democrat Rob McCord who beat former Montgomery County commissioner Tom Ellis by 678,000 votes. McCord is a newcomer to the state political scene, but I suspect it won't be long before the well-spoken suburban Philadelphian makes his presence known. One sign that McCord may have some other elective desires is the fact he decided to spend election night in Pittsburgh rather than in his hometown.
PA CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION
Pennsylvania Democrats not only beat back the Republican attempt to defeat a couple of their incumbent congressmen, but they also added to their numbers from Pennsylvania. The state's 19 representatives in the 111th Congress will be 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans. There's some irony here because when the Republican-controlled state legislature and a Republican governor (Tom Ridge) gerrymandered PA's congressional districts after the 2000 census, they elected 12 Republicans from PA. Now the situation is reversed in the very same districts the Republicans created! Of course, the state now has many more Democrats than in did eight years ago.
Dahlkemper Makes History:
U.S. Rep. Phil English (3rd CD), the Erie Republican, was defeated by Erie Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper. Dahlkemper calls herself a conservative Democrat -- pro-life, pro-gun, pro-small business -- but that didn't stop House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) from pumping a lot of money into her race. In the end, she beat English by 8,300 votes. She kept it close in most of the counties, including Butler and Armstrong outside of Pittsburgh, and clinched victory with a 16,000-vote win in Erie County. Dahlkemper has told me that she wants to be more visible in the Pittsburgh media market than her predecessor. Her sister and son live in this area, and her first grandchild will soon be born in Pittsburgh, giving her plenty of "family" reasons to be around here. It will be interesting to see whether the new congresswoman is able to establish any kind of identity in the Pittsburgh media market.
Dalhkemper is only the second Democratic woman ever elected from western PA to the U.S. House of Representatives. Vera Buchanan of Pittsburgh was the first back in 1951 when she was elected in a special election to fill her husband's term. Buchanan went on to win two terms in her own right before dying in office of cancer in 1955 -- the first female Member of Congress to die in office. Dahlkemper will take office after a 54-year absence of a Democratic woman from this region in Congress.
Murtha Flexes His Political Muscle:
U.S. Rep. John Murtha (12th CD) was supposed to be in deep, deep trouble. But that was before he called in a lot of chits, raised a lot of money in two weeks, and overwhelmed his opponent, Republican William Russell, with both attack ads and a positive message of accomplishment for western PA. One month ago, Murtha took reelection in his district for granted. Then Russell, who raised a lot of money through a DC-based direct mail agency, exploited the congressman's own words about racism in western PA. A Republican-based poll suggested Russell was only four points behind Murtha, and all of sudden the nation's eyes were on this district.
In the end, Murtha beat Russell by 41,000 votes, winning a healthy 58% of the vote. Russell, who was upfront that he had moved to the district to run against Murtha, could not beat back the carpetbagger charge, especially when Murtha trumpeted all the millions of dollars his seniority has brought into the district. Murtha carried most of the nine counties through which his district stretches, including Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland Counties which were relatively new to the 12th CD.
Altmire Wins Convincingly:
It was hard to find anyone who ever thought U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire (4th CD) was really vulnerable to the Republican he had defeated two years earlier, former U.S. Rep. Melissa Hart. Rematches are always tough in politics, and Hart just didn't have the resources or the issues to plant the seed of "buyer's remorse" among the voters in this suburban Pittsburgh district.
Altmire beat Hart by 39,000 votes, considerably more than the 8,800-vote win he had two years ago, giving the freshman a double-digit victory that probably takes him off the GOP list for some years to come. Altmire beat Hart by nearly 11,000 votes in Allegheny County, 23,000 in Beaver County, 9,000 votes in Lawrence County -- and that was all she wrote!
Murphy Defines a Republican Landslide:
Local Democrats would love to beat U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy (18th CD), but they just can't find a candidate who can unseat this popular, well-funded, and politically savvy Republican. Monroeville businessman Steve O'Donnell thought he was the Democrat who could do the trick, but he ended up losing even worse than Chad Kluko, the Democrat who tried with much less resources in 2006. This time, Murphy -- who ran both positive TV ads on himself and negative attack ads on O'Donnell -- cruised to an impressive 90,000-vote win, 64% to 36%, over the Democrat. O'Donnell didn't come close in any of the four counties that make up the 18th CD, which means that thousands of Democrats (in a district with a 70,000 Democratic registration advantage) voted to give Murphy a fourth term in Congress.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Forget Bonusgate, Democrats Stay in Charge of State House:
It appears that Bonusgate had no impact on the legislative races. In this region, House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese faced a repeat challenger from Republican Greg Hopkins in his 50th legislative district. DeWeese knew what was coming and prepared well. Last February, he was out walking his district in the snow, knocking on doors, a practice he says he continued throughout the campaign. The end result was a larger win for DeWeese than two years ago, more than 2,000 votes this time. DeWeese’s return to Harrisburg does not guarantee him his top ranking spot in the Democratic Party, and concerns about his former chief of staff’s private conversations with the Attorney General about DeWeese’s role in Bonusgate trouble a lot of his colleagues. But DeWeese is nothing if not a survivor. Stay tuned.
The latest report is that the Democrats will not only retain control of the House but also add to their numbers. The current number, 102 Dems to 101 Republicans, could end up being 104 to 99. The Dems lost four seats on Tuesday, including Beaver County Rep. Vince Biancucci (15th LD) who was upset by Republican newcomer Jim Christiana and an open Westmoreland County seat (57th LD occupied by retiring Democrat Tom Tangretti) that Republican Tim Krieger won over Democrat John Boyle. The third Democratic loss was in Elk and Clearfield Counties where incumbent Rep. Dan Surra (75th LD) was upset by Republican Matt Gabler, and the fourth loss was in Bucks County where incumbent Rep. Chris King (142nd LD) was upset by Republican Frank Farry.
These four Democratic losses could have been fatal to state House control had they not picked up six seats in eastern Pennsylvania. Four Dems won open seats: Steve Santarsiero (31st LD in Bucks County), Richard Mirabito (83rd LD in Lycoming County), Paul Drucker (157th LD in Chester County), and Brendan Boyle (170th LD in Philadelphia). Two other Democrats defeated Republican incumbents on Tuesday: Democrat Tom Houghton beat Republican John Lawrence (13th LD in Chester County) and Matt Bradford defeated Jay Moyer (70th LD in Montgomery County).
The most interesting question now is whether the Democrats will be able to reach some consensus on a Democratic Speaker of the House. As the truly savvy know, two years ago the Dems picked Philadelphia Republican Dennis O’Brien to be their speaker because their top Democrat Bill DeWeese could not get the votes from his caucus. O’Brien would love to keep his job, and he’ll keep it as long as 102representatives cannot agree on someone else!
State Senate Goes Even More Republican:
You would think that with the Democratic landslide for Obama, a couple of Dems might have won some state Senate seats. Not so. The Republicans actually increased their control of the Senate, 30 to 20. In two nasty contests in western PA, Republicans managed to keep control of one seat and picked up another. In the 39th SD (Westmoreland County), county commissioner Kim Ward defeated Democratic chiropractor Tony Bompiani by 8,000 votes. Ward replaces retiring state Sen. Bob Regola, a fellow Republican. In the 47th SD (Beaver & Lawrence Counties), Republican Elder Vogel defeated Democrat Jason Petrella by 14,000 votes to replace Democratic state Sen. Gerry LaValle. The stories behind these defeats take too much time to digest, but at the beginning of this campaign year the Dems were favored to win both and managed to blow the opportunity. They were out out-foxed, out-hustled, out-negatived (yes, that too), and out-spent by the GOP, so two senate districts with more Ds than Rs now join the Republican column for four more years.
That’s a quick run-down 24 hours after the election results have come in. I welcome your insights and comments. Now it’s time for all of us to take a break, get some sleep, and start to think about Campaign 2010! Yeehaw!
Showing posts with label John Murtha. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Murtha. Show all posts
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Just One Week to Go
Dear Politically Savvy Friends,
Greetings from a “battleground state” with just over one week to go! Admittedly, if you are in a state where the Obama and McCain political ads have dominated the airwaves – to say nothing of all those “independent” ads – you can’t wait for all this to end. Forgot all those car ads – now all we see are campaign ads, most of which attack the other guy. My gut says that the old channel changer is in overdrive these days.
The truth is that 95% of folks know exactly what they are going to do on Election Day – even here in Pennsylvania – but that, of course, is the problem. It’s not yet 100% -- and in states like this one without “early” voting the real voting is yet to come. That means all this political warfare is directed at a very few number of voters, but voters who can make the difference in whether this is a landslide for Barack Obama or a narrow come-from-behind victory for John McCain.
So, my dear politically savvy friends, one week out, here are some thoughts of mine about both the presidential contest and some of the other political fights going on here in Pennsylvania. Whether you are a new savvy friend, or a familiar seasoned one, I welcome your personal off-the-record comments on how things are going in your neck of the woods.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
My Overview:
If you listen to the national media, you might think this race is over. But even Obama’s closest confidantes know that there is no such thing as a done deal until all the votes are counted next Tuesday night. It’s true that Obama is leading McCain in enough states to reach that magic 270 electoral votes, but leading in the polls is quite different from leading at the polls. I certainly think the odds favor an Obama-Biden victory over McCain-Palin. After all, given all the unhappiness in the direction of this country – 85% say America is headed in the wrong direction, according to the latest CBS/NYTimes poll – and the general repudiation of the current Republican in the White House – 23% job approval for President Bush in the latest Newsweek poll -- it’s surprising that any Republican candidate has kept it as close as McCain has done. That’s a personal testament to John McCain.
My friend Charlie Cook may have it right when he says that a lot of folks are just so unhappy about the way things are going they feel they have nothing to lose by giving Obama and the Democrats a chance to govern. McCain keeps trying to tell people how they might lose with Obama, but I think a lot of folks have tuned him out. While the latest “Joe the Plumber” riff wins lots of cheers at GOP rallies, it’s not resonating enough to be a deal-changer. In fact, the whole notion that Obama wants to “spread the wealth” hardly seems ominous, since most poor and middle class Americans have seen their own wealth disappear while the wealthier keep getting richer. Indeed, most middle class families – that’s most of my PSFers – have not seen their incomes rise as rapidly over the last decade as those who make the really big bucks and, lately, most middle income families have lost ground because of inflation.
So if this election really comes down to the economy, it’s hard to imagine the Democrats losing. But, again, a week can be a lifetime in politics, and we all know that a national security crisis or some other unpredictable event can change the dynamic dramatically.
Is Pennsylvania Up for Grabs?
The last time a Democrat won the White House without Pennsylvania was back in 1948 when Harry S. Truman lost the state but won the presidency. It is conceivable for Obama to lose PA and still win, but this state’s 21 electoral votes make it a coveted prize. In the last week, every poll puts Obama ahead of McCain, often by 10 points, but both John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning all over PA like this is their last stand. Last week, both were in the Pittsburgh area within three days of each other. Do they know something the pollsters don’t know? In contrast, Obama has spent most of his PA campaign time back east. He makes his first public return to western PA since August 29 on Monday (today) at the Mellon Arena.
In some ways, it’s not hard to see why Obama and Biden campaign in eastern PA so much. If they can “run the numbers” in Philadelphia and its suburbs and sweep the area around Joe Biden’s “hometown” of Scranton, the lead becomes difficult for McCain to overcome elsewhere in the state. But if McCain can hold his own in the Philly suburbs and in the northeast, then victory in PA comes down to western PA. And most of the polls I’ve seen show this part of PA very much “up for grabs.”
PENNSYLVANIA:
So What’s Happening in Western PA?
As I have suggested in earlier PSFs, Allegheny County (Greater Pittsburgh) is almost certainly going to vote for Obama. Latest registration figures show approximately 586,000 Democrats to 254,000 Republicans and 101,000 independents. John Kerry beat George Bush here by 97,000 votes, a margin that Obama could exceed, especially if all the new registrants show up to vote.
Speaking of new voters, here’s an interesting statistic from a county that is often compared to Miama-Dade for the older age of its residents. The number of registered voters under age 25 has now surpassed 100,000 in Allegheny County, up to 100,162. Of course, voters 75+ still exceed that number here at 119,487. Yeah, that’s right – registered voters 75+ still outnumber those under 25, and we all know the older folks vote! Looking a bit closer, however, voters under 35 in Allegheny County now exceed those 65 and older: 261,887 youngsters to 206,817 oldsters. If Obama can turn out the youngsters, anything is possible.
It looks better for McCain outside Allegheny County. While Democrats have a 49,000 voter registration advantage in Westmoreland County, nobody thinks Obama will beat McCain there. Bush beat Kerry there by 22,000 votes. Local Dems blame Richard Mellon Scaife and his Tribune Review newspaper. I think that’s unfair. The editorially conservative newspaper has some outstanding local reporters and has been fair in its coverage of the presidential race, as far as I can see. A more accurate explanation is that Democrats in Westmoreland County are simply more conservative, both economically and socially, than Obama. Rather than blame a local newspaper, Dems would be smarter to focus on issues that might attract Democrats to their ticket.
It’s also true that Christian evangelicals are an important segment of many western PA counties. While pundits often speak of this important base within the Republican Party, there are plenty of Democrats who are religious conservatives, too. It helps explain why Bush only lost Washington County by 552 votes in 2004 when the county’s Dems outnumber Republicans by 40,000 – or why in Beaver County where Dems have a 34,000 registration edge, Kerry won by only 2,200 votes. When Palin held a rally at the Beaver Area High School stadium last week, I saw many signs and stickers identifying with her anti-abortion views and, yes, I talked to Democrats in the crowd.
McCain Volunteer Hoax:
If you google the above words, you’ll get more than you want about the bizarre story from this region last week wherein a 20-year old white female McCain volunteer from Texas concocted a story out of whole cloth about being mugged by a black male in a Pittsburgh neighborhood who etched a reverse “B” in her face because she had a McCain bumper sticker on her car. The story turned out to be completely bogus, but that didn’t stop the Drudge Report from “teasing” it or the local McCain campaign from passing along the details to local news outlets. As far as I can tell, local news people acted professionally, obtaining the police report filed by this young woman, reporting its bogus contents, along with statements from the McCain campaign and reaction from the Obama campaign. Once the facts were known, the hoax was first reported by KDKA-TV and other local media, and I daresay the hoax got a whole lot more news coverage than the initial story did. While there may be some unanswered questions to some in the blogosphere, both local campaigns say they want to move beyond this sad story of a very troubled young woman who will face criminal charges for filing a false police report.
Is Pennsylvania a Racist State?
The notion that PA is full of racist rednecks was not helped by U.S. Rep. John Murtha’s recent assertion that this region is a racist one [see below]. But to suggest that somehow this area has more racists than other parts of the state – or, indeed, that PA is more racist than Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York (the states that surround us) is ludicrous. But make no mistake: race will play a role for some voters next Tuesday. Murtha suggested it may be more a problem with his generation – he’s 76 and I suppose he should know – than it is with my Babyboom generation or with the younger folks. My gut says he may be right on that point, but, again, it’s wrong to generalize, since we all know racists at every age level. The more important question, politically, is how large is the racist vote?
I don’t know how we can measure this even after the election, particularly since people often lie to pollsters. There are plenty of white Democrats who oppose Obama on issues important to them – abortion, guns, taxes, military – and to suggest they would have voted for a white Obama is crazy. Obviously, voting for McCain does not make you a racist, so you can’t draw a judgment on a vote total.
For all the talk about race, I hope that however the vote turns out in Pennsylvania and around the country, the one thing we can say is that race did not play a decisive role in the outcome. And, by the way, let’s address the canard that black folks are racist if and when they vote for Obama. First, that’s only true if they never vote for a white candidate. History suggests otherwise: African Americans have been one of the most dependable constituencies for white Democrats since Franklin D. Roosevelt. This time, the Democrat happens to be black (or at least half black). Second, every ethnic, religious, and now racial group tends to “vote for its own” when its candidate is a first-time history-maker. It’s hard to find a Catholic, for example, who did not vote for John F. Kennedy in 1960. By the time John Kerry, also a Catholic, was the standard-bearer 44 years later, that kind of religious allegiance had waned. Finally, there’s no real evidence that blacks are voting for Obama solely because he’s black any more than there is evidence that whites are voting against Obama solely because of race.
Besides the presidential race, Pennsylvanians will elect three statewide officials, 19 members of Congress, 203 members of the state House, and 25 (or one-half) of the state Senate. For those interested in these races, read on.
Attorney General Race May Be Closer Than Thought:
It’s hard to imagine anyone defeating Tom Corbett, the Republican attorney general from suburban Pittsburgh, losing reelection for a second four-year term. Corbett is a likeable, generally moderate Republican, who has strong roots in the G.O.P. He got his first position – US Attorney for Western PA – by heading up the 1988 campaign in this region for George H.W. Bush. After he was ousted by President Clinton, he was named by Gov. Tom Ridge in 1995 to fill out the term of the resigned and convicted Ernie Preate. To get confirmed, Corbett had to promise not to run for the open seat in 1996. That opened the way for another Pittsburgh suburban Republican, Mike Fisher, who narrowly election to a job that only Republicans have held since it became an elected statewide office in 1980. With Fisher term-limited, Corbett got his chance in 2004, although he had a very contentious primary against Montgomery County district attorney Bruce Castor that still has scars. He barely won the general election against Philadelphia attorney Jim Eisenhower (a distant Democratic cousin of the late Republican president), defeating the Democrat by 109,000 votes out of just over 5.4 million votes cast.
Fast forward to today. Corbett is being challenged by John Morganelli, the district attorney of Northampton County (the greater Bethelehem-Easton area). Corbett is running on a record that includes an aggressive attack on sexual predators on the internet, along with his role in charging Democratic legislators and staff people involved in “bonusgate” – shorthand for legislative leaders using tax dollars to give out big bonuses to staff people who engaged in campaign work for their party. Morganelli, who has 17 years as a criminal prosecutor and styles himself a pro-gun, pro-life, and pro-death penalty conservative Democrat, asserts that Corbett has botched the investigation, first, by not appointing an independent prosecutor who would go after wrong-doing in both political parties, and, second, by giving the Republicans time essentially to clean the books for any subsequent charges that Corbett has promised might come after his reelection. See my KDKA-TV interview with Morganelli at http://kdka.com/video/?id=47592@kdka.dayport.com for the specifics.
Now Corbett has responded with a solid television ad campaign across the commonwealth, and it’s hard to find anyone who thinks Morganelli will win except Morganelli. But Morganelli is also on television, at least in this region where nobody knows him, but Corbett has out-fundraised him, $3.3 million to $1.3 million. When Fisher was reelected in 2000, he won by 504,000 votes; but the reelections of both LeRoy Zimmerman in 1984 and Ernie Preate in 1992 were much closer, within 2% of the total vote. Corbett wants a big win next Tuesday to establish himself as the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010. He can do that, but it’s just as possible, particularly given the Democratic voter registration advantage, that Morganelli keeps it close. Stay tuned.
Jack Wagner Seems a Shoo-In for Auditor General:
Quickly now, can you name the Republican running against Democratic incumbent Auditor General Jack Wagner? Probably not, which is why Wagner, a former state senator and city council president from Pittsburgh, will likely be reelected state auditor general next Tuesday. Wagner’s opponent is Chet Beiler, a Lancaster County Republican and local businessman who built a local gazebo business into one of the nation’s largest gazebo retailers. Beiler says his business experience is exactly what the state needs to audit its accounts, but he has raised only $475,000 to spread that message statewide, while the better-known Wagner has over a million bucks. Like Corbett, Wagner wants a big win as a set-up for 2010. His name is frequently on the short-list for either governor (an open seat coveted by many) or U.S. senator (against U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who has every intention of seeking another 6-year term).
State Treasurer Office Up For Grabs:
When U.S. Sen. Bob Casey became a senator, he left vacant the office of state treasurer. This year, two newcomers to statewide politics are on the ballot – Democrat Rob McCord versus Republican Tom Ellis. Both men come from the Philadelphia suburbs and generally unknown. McCord ran a somewhat visible race for the Democratic nomination last spring, which might give him a leg up, but what really helps him is his bankroll. A venture capitalist, McCord has pumped at least $1.4 million of his own money into this race. Ellis, a former Montgomery County commissioner and bond finance lawyer, has raised about $360,000. At a time when the stock market is crashing, you might assume the candidates for this office would be getting more public attention. After all, the state treasurer manages about $100 billion in state monies (well, who knows exactly what it’s worth these days) and signs off on about 23 million checks from the state treasury each year. But this race has been about as invisible as the one for auditor general. That’s probably good news for McCord, who seems to have all the advantages in this contest.
PA Congressional Battles:
Pennsylvania was one of the key states that gave Democrats control of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate in 2006. Five Republican incumbents were ousted – U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and U.S. Reps. Melissa Hart (4th CD), Curt Weldon (7th CD), Mike Fitzpatrick (8th CD), and Don Sherwood (10th CD) – the Democratic winners were Bob Casey and Jason Altmire, Joe Sestack, Patrick Murphy, and Chris Carney. Each of these incumbents look like winners next Tuesday, although the Republicans are not letting it go without a battle. Hart, for example, has engaged Altmire in a feisty rematch, and Carney’s district is so Republican it requires Carney to garner GOP votes (which he has done) against his challenger, Chris Hackett.
The more interesting races involve other incumbents in other districts. U.S. Rep. Phil English (3rd CD), an Erie Republican first elected in 1994, is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper of Erie. Some polls actually have her in the lead right now, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pumping money into her race. The district stretches from Erie into Butler and Armstrong Counties just north of Pittsburgh. Dahlkemper is a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-business conservative Democrat, she says, but attacks English on economic and trade issues. You can check out my TV interview with her at http://kdka.com/video/?id=47842@kdka.dayport.com for more.
Could the dean of PA’s congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Jack Murtha (12th CD) of Johnstown, seriously be in electoral trouble? Well, it didn’t help that he stated publicly to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette that “there is no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area.” Now whether you believe Murtha was right or not, it’s not the kind of talk folks like to hear from their congressman. Murtha’s comments have been lampooned on “Saturday Night Live” and are now featured in TV ads by his GOP opponent, William Russell, a retired but still young lieutenant colonel who just recently moved to Pennsylvania. Russell is a true conservative on every imaginable issue, who accuses Murtha of “aiding and abetting the enemy” in Iraq for his comments about the U.S. Marines accused, and then cleared, of murdering Iraqis in Haditha. Here’s my TV interview with Russell at http://kdka.com/video/?id=46261@kdka.dayport.com and http://kdka.com/video/?id=46263@kdka.dayport.com. This weekend, Murtha’s campaign, which has largely ignored Russell, issued a statement accusing the Republican of calling himself a “West Point graduate” on his website when, in fact, Russell was dismissed from the academy for “academic failure.” It’s true Russell flunked out of West Point, but his campaign says the website posting is from another organization. Murtha is also accusing Russell of being a Virginia carpetbagger who just moved to PA to run against him. Beside the racism hullabaloo, Murtha, a social conservative, has pumped millions of dollars in “earmarks” into this western PA district that generally likes the money enabled only because of Murtha’s incredible clout on the Appropriations Committee. The question is whether the 76-year old’s comments on racism are enough to cost him an election. Two years ago, Murtha clobbered Washington County commissioner Diana Irey with 61% of the vote. This race will almost certainly be closer. Last week, the Susquehanna Poll, published by the Tribune Review, has Murtha ahead by just four points.
Without a doubt, U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy (18th CD), a Republican from the suburbs of Pittsburgh, seems to luck out every election year. Despite a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic (by 75,000 voters at least), the moderate-to-conservative Republican wins every time. His campaign will tell you, with some accuracy, that this is because nobody works his district harder than Murphy. But it’s also true that the Democrats never quite seem to gel behind an opponent. This year, Monroeville businessman Steve O’Donnell won a contested primary (featuring the daughter of former state treasurer Barbara Hafer) to challenge Murphy. O’Donnell is trying, largely with a lawn sign, radio, and direct mail campaign – while Murphy is blitzing in all the typical ways, including lots of TV ads. Two years ago, against an opponent who did little, Murphy got 58% of the vote. This year, it will be closer, but O’Donnell is fighting the odds – and the failure of the DCCC to target this race says something. One sign that this race may be tighter than some think is that Murphy has now launched an attack ad on O’Donnell on television, surprising many since O’Donnell hasn’t been on TV. But unless the Democratic tide is overwhelming, most people still think Murphy will emerge the victor.
General Assembly Contests a Snoozer:
Gone are the days when an irate public in PA ousted some powerful incumbents because of their unrepentant vote for a massive pay increase. This year’s legislative battles have been largely overshadowed by the presidential race.
The state Senate will certainly remain in GOP control. In this region, some state senators are unopposed, while others have token opposition. PA Sen. John Pippy (37th SD), a Moon Township Republican, is being challenged by Democrat Amy Jude Schmotzer, a nurse from Whitehall who appears to have won the lawn sign battle. The district is marginally Democratic (83,000 Dems to 72,000 Republicans and 18,000 independents/other). Schmotzer has run a grassroots campaign, focusing on a reform agenda, while Pippy echoes the same. Although the Dems have no women from this region in the state Senate, it would take a perfect storm of Dems and independents voting for Schmotzer to upset Pippy.
The race to replace PA Sen. Bob Regola (39th SD), the Westmoreland County Republican who was acquitted of certain gun law violations that resulted in the death of a youngster next door, has been nasty, brutish, and long. Republican Kim Ward and Democrat Tony Bompiani have assaulted each other with accusations that each is a tax-raiser. Ward was just elected minority commissioner for Westmoreland County last year and stepped in for Regola when he suddenly resigned his nomination in August. Bompiani served as a Hempfield school director while Ward was a Hempfield supervisor, which means that both have votes to attack. The state campaign committees of both parties have invested in this battle, and I think the outcome is a toss-up.
PA Rep. Sean Ramaley was the odds-on favorite to replace PA Sen. Jerry Lavalle (47th SD) in this heavily Democratic mostly Beaver County senate district, until Corbett charged Ramaley with doing campaign work while on former state Rep. Mike Veon’s legislative payroll way back when. Democrats think these charges were trumped up, but Ramaley had little choice to step down as the party nominee. That allowed Jason Petrella, who lost in the primary to Ramaley, to get the nod from the executive committee of the Democratic Party in Harrisburg. But their choice of Petrella was at odds with a majority of local committee people in Beaver County who preferred county commissioner Joe Spanik for the nod, while the Beaver-Lawrence Labor Council wanted Bob Grotevant, former aide to Bob Casey. Now a divided Democratic Party is hoping Petrella can withstand attack from a united Republican effort behind their nominee, Elder Vogel. This seat should never go Republican, but it just might this year.
Finally, the one House battle everyone is watching in this region is the Republican effort to unseat the House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (50th HD). Two years ago, DeWeese beat Republican Greg Hopkins by 1,039 votes. This year, Hopkins is back, but the situation is slightly different. First, DeWeese’s former chief of staff has turned state’s evidence in the Bonusgate scandal, and lots of folks think he is fingering DeWeese in the process. Second, DeWeese is running scared, unlike last time, knocking on doors throughout the district even during the snow of last February. Third, DeWeese is going after Hopkins this time, accusing him of spending most of his time in California where Hopkins coaches an arena football team and replaying on TV comments Hopkins made about the district being on welfare. In short, if DeWeese loses this time, it won’t be without a fight from the Democrat.
Well, that wraps this PSF up for the moment. I may try to get another one out before the election. In the meantime, email me your thoughts and predictions. I love hearing from you.
Greetings from a “battleground state” with just over one week to go! Admittedly, if you are in a state where the Obama and McCain political ads have dominated the airwaves – to say nothing of all those “independent” ads – you can’t wait for all this to end. Forgot all those car ads – now all we see are campaign ads, most of which attack the other guy. My gut says that the old channel changer is in overdrive these days.
The truth is that 95% of folks know exactly what they are going to do on Election Day – even here in Pennsylvania – but that, of course, is the problem. It’s not yet 100% -- and in states like this one without “early” voting the real voting is yet to come. That means all this political warfare is directed at a very few number of voters, but voters who can make the difference in whether this is a landslide for Barack Obama or a narrow come-from-behind victory for John McCain.
So, my dear politically savvy friends, one week out, here are some thoughts of mine about both the presidential contest and some of the other political fights going on here in Pennsylvania. Whether you are a new savvy friend, or a familiar seasoned one, I welcome your personal off-the-record comments on how things are going in your neck of the woods.
BEYOND THE BELTWAY
My Overview:
If you listen to the national media, you might think this race is over. But even Obama’s closest confidantes know that there is no such thing as a done deal until all the votes are counted next Tuesday night. It’s true that Obama is leading McCain in enough states to reach that magic 270 electoral votes, but leading in the polls is quite different from leading at the polls. I certainly think the odds favor an Obama-Biden victory over McCain-Palin. After all, given all the unhappiness in the direction of this country – 85% say America is headed in the wrong direction, according to the latest CBS/NYTimes poll – and the general repudiation of the current Republican in the White House – 23% job approval for President Bush in the latest Newsweek poll -- it’s surprising that any Republican candidate has kept it as close as McCain has done. That’s a personal testament to John McCain.
My friend Charlie Cook may have it right when he says that a lot of folks are just so unhappy about the way things are going they feel they have nothing to lose by giving Obama and the Democrats a chance to govern. McCain keeps trying to tell people how they might lose with Obama, but I think a lot of folks have tuned him out. While the latest “Joe the Plumber” riff wins lots of cheers at GOP rallies, it’s not resonating enough to be a deal-changer. In fact, the whole notion that Obama wants to “spread the wealth” hardly seems ominous, since most poor and middle class Americans have seen their own wealth disappear while the wealthier keep getting richer. Indeed, most middle class families – that’s most of my PSFers – have not seen their incomes rise as rapidly over the last decade as those who make the really big bucks and, lately, most middle income families have lost ground because of inflation.
So if this election really comes down to the economy, it’s hard to imagine the Democrats losing. But, again, a week can be a lifetime in politics, and we all know that a national security crisis or some other unpredictable event can change the dynamic dramatically.
Is Pennsylvania Up for Grabs?
The last time a Democrat won the White House without Pennsylvania was back in 1948 when Harry S. Truman lost the state but won the presidency. It is conceivable for Obama to lose PA and still win, but this state’s 21 electoral votes make it a coveted prize. In the last week, every poll puts Obama ahead of McCain, often by 10 points, but both John McCain and Sarah Palin have been campaigning all over PA like this is their last stand. Last week, both were in the Pittsburgh area within three days of each other. Do they know something the pollsters don’t know? In contrast, Obama has spent most of his PA campaign time back east. He makes his first public return to western PA since August 29 on Monday (today) at the Mellon Arena.
In some ways, it’s not hard to see why Obama and Biden campaign in eastern PA so much. If they can “run the numbers” in Philadelphia and its suburbs and sweep the area around Joe Biden’s “hometown” of Scranton, the lead becomes difficult for McCain to overcome elsewhere in the state. But if McCain can hold his own in the Philly suburbs and in the northeast, then victory in PA comes down to western PA. And most of the polls I’ve seen show this part of PA very much “up for grabs.”
PENNSYLVANIA:
So What’s Happening in Western PA?
As I have suggested in earlier PSFs, Allegheny County (Greater Pittsburgh) is almost certainly going to vote for Obama. Latest registration figures show approximately 586,000 Democrats to 254,000 Republicans and 101,000 independents. John Kerry beat George Bush here by 97,000 votes, a margin that Obama could exceed, especially if all the new registrants show up to vote.
Speaking of new voters, here’s an interesting statistic from a county that is often compared to Miama-Dade for the older age of its residents. The number of registered voters under age 25 has now surpassed 100,000 in Allegheny County, up to 100,162. Of course, voters 75+ still exceed that number here at 119,487. Yeah, that’s right – registered voters 75+ still outnumber those under 25, and we all know the older folks vote! Looking a bit closer, however, voters under 35 in Allegheny County now exceed those 65 and older: 261,887 youngsters to 206,817 oldsters. If Obama can turn out the youngsters, anything is possible.
It looks better for McCain outside Allegheny County. While Democrats have a 49,000 voter registration advantage in Westmoreland County, nobody thinks Obama will beat McCain there. Bush beat Kerry there by 22,000 votes. Local Dems blame Richard Mellon Scaife and his Tribune Review newspaper. I think that’s unfair. The editorially conservative newspaper has some outstanding local reporters and has been fair in its coverage of the presidential race, as far as I can see. A more accurate explanation is that Democrats in Westmoreland County are simply more conservative, both economically and socially, than Obama. Rather than blame a local newspaper, Dems would be smarter to focus on issues that might attract Democrats to their ticket.
It’s also true that Christian evangelicals are an important segment of many western PA counties. While pundits often speak of this important base within the Republican Party, there are plenty of Democrats who are religious conservatives, too. It helps explain why Bush only lost Washington County by 552 votes in 2004 when the county’s Dems outnumber Republicans by 40,000 – or why in Beaver County where Dems have a 34,000 registration edge, Kerry won by only 2,200 votes. When Palin held a rally at the Beaver Area High School stadium last week, I saw many signs and stickers identifying with her anti-abortion views and, yes, I talked to Democrats in the crowd.
McCain Volunteer Hoax:
If you google the above words, you’ll get more than you want about the bizarre story from this region last week wherein a 20-year old white female McCain volunteer from Texas concocted a story out of whole cloth about being mugged by a black male in a Pittsburgh neighborhood who etched a reverse “B” in her face because she had a McCain bumper sticker on her car. The story turned out to be completely bogus, but that didn’t stop the Drudge Report from “teasing” it or the local McCain campaign from passing along the details to local news outlets. As far as I can tell, local news people acted professionally, obtaining the police report filed by this young woman, reporting its bogus contents, along with statements from the McCain campaign and reaction from the Obama campaign. Once the facts were known, the hoax was first reported by KDKA-TV and other local media, and I daresay the hoax got a whole lot more news coverage than the initial story did. While there may be some unanswered questions to some in the blogosphere, both local campaigns say they want to move beyond this sad story of a very troubled young woman who will face criminal charges for filing a false police report.
Is Pennsylvania a Racist State?
The notion that PA is full of racist rednecks was not helped by U.S. Rep. John Murtha’s recent assertion that this region is a racist one [see below]. But to suggest that somehow this area has more racists than other parts of the state – or, indeed, that PA is more racist than Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York (the states that surround us) is ludicrous. But make no mistake: race will play a role for some voters next Tuesday. Murtha suggested it may be more a problem with his generation – he’s 76 and I suppose he should know – than it is with my Babyboom generation or with the younger folks. My gut says he may be right on that point, but, again, it’s wrong to generalize, since we all know racists at every age level. The more important question, politically, is how large is the racist vote?
I don’t know how we can measure this even after the election, particularly since people often lie to pollsters. There are plenty of white Democrats who oppose Obama on issues important to them – abortion, guns, taxes, military – and to suggest they would have voted for a white Obama is crazy. Obviously, voting for McCain does not make you a racist, so you can’t draw a judgment on a vote total.
For all the talk about race, I hope that however the vote turns out in Pennsylvania and around the country, the one thing we can say is that race did not play a decisive role in the outcome. And, by the way, let’s address the canard that black folks are racist if and when they vote for Obama. First, that’s only true if they never vote for a white candidate. History suggests otherwise: African Americans have been one of the most dependable constituencies for white Democrats since Franklin D. Roosevelt. This time, the Democrat happens to be black (or at least half black). Second, every ethnic, religious, and now racial group tends to “vote for its own” when its candidate is a first-time history-maker. It’s hard to find a Catholic, for example, who did not vote for John F. Kennedy in 1960. By the time John Kerry, also a Catholic, was the standard-bearer 44 years later, that kind of religious allegiance had waned. Finally, there’s no real evidence that blacks are voting for Obama solely because he’s black any more than there is evidence that whites are voting against Obama solely because of race.
Besides the presidential race, Pennsylvanians will elect three statewide officials, 19 members of Congress, 203 members of the state House, and 25 (or one-half) of the state Senate. For those interested in these races, read on.
Attorney General Race May Be Closer Than Thought:
It’s hard to imagine anyone defeating Tom Corbett, the Republican attorney general from suburban Pittsburgh, losing reelection for a second four-year term. Corbett is a likeable, generally moderate Republican, who has strong roots in the G.O.P. He got his first position – US Attorney for Western PA – by heading up the 1988 campaign in this region for George H.W. Bush. After he was ousted by President Clinton, he was named by Gov. Tom Ridge in 1995 to fill out the term of the resigned and convicted Ernie Preate. To get confirmed, Corbett had to promise not to run for the open seat in 1996. That opened the way for another Pittsburgh suburban Republican, Mike Fisher, who narrowly election to a job that only Republicans have held since it became an elected statewide office in 1980. With Fisher term-limited, Corbett got his chance in 2004, although he had a very contentious primary against Montgomery County district attorney Bruce Castor that still has scars. He barely won the general election against Philadelphia attorney Jim Eisenhower (a distant Democratic cousin of the late Republican president), defeating the Democrat by 109,000 votes out of just over 5.4 million votes cast.
Fast forward to today. Corbett is being challenged by John Morganelli, the district attorney of Northampton County (the greater Bethelehem-Easton area). Corbett is running on a record that includes an aggressive attack on sexual predators on the internet, along with his role in charging Democratic legislators and staff people involved in “bonusgate” – shorthand for legislative leaders using tax dollars to give out big bonuses to staff people who engaged in campaign work for their party. Morganelli, who has 17 years as a criminal prosecutor and styles himself a pro-gun, pro-life, and pro-death penalty conservative Democrat, asserts that Corbett has botched the investigation, first, by not appointing an independent prosecutor who would go after wrong-doing in both political parties, and, second, by giving the Republicans time essentially to clean the books for any subsequent charges that Corbett has promised might come after his reelection. See my KDKA-TV interview with Morganelli at http://kdka.com/video/?id=47592@kdka.dayport.com for the specifics.
Now Corbett has responded with a solid television ad campaign across the commonwealth, and it’s hard to find anyone who thinks Morganelli will win except Morganelli. But Morganelli is also on television, at least in this region where nobody knows him, but Corbett has out-fundraised him, $3.3 million to $1.3 million. When Fisher was reelected in 2000, he won by 504,000 votes; but the reelections of both LeRoy Zimmerman in 1984 and Ernie Preate in 1992 were much closer, within 2% of the total vote. Corbett wants a big win next Tuesday to establish himself as the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination for governor in 2010. He can do that, but it’s just as possible, particularly given the Democratic voter registration advantage, that Morganelli keeps it close. Stay tuned.
Jack Wagner Seems a Shoo-In for Auditor General:
Quickly now, can you name the Republican running against Democratic incumbent Auditor General Jack Wagner? Probably not, which is why Wagner, a former state senator and city council president from Pittsburgh, will likely be reelected state auditor general next Tuesday. Wagner’s opponent is Chet Beiler, a Lancaster County Republican and local businessman who built a local gazebo business into one of the nation’s largest gazebo retailers. Beiler says his business experience is exactly what the state needs to audit its accounts, but he has raised only $475,000 to spread that message statewide, while the better-known Wagner has over a million bucks. Like Corbett, Wagner wants a big win as a set-up for 2010. His name is frequently on the short-list for either governor (an open seat coveted by many) or U.S. senator (against U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who has every intention of seeking another 6-year term).
State Treasurer Office Up For Grabs:
When U.S. Sen. Bob Casey became a senator, he left vacant the office of state treasurer. This year, two newcomers to statewide politics are on the ballot – Democrat Rob McCord versus Republican Tom Ellis. Both men come from the Philadelphia suburbs and generally unknown. McCord ran a somewhat visible race for the Democratic nomination last spring, which might give him a leg up, but what really helps him is his bankroll. A venture capitalist, McCord has pumped at least $1.4 million of his own money into this race. Ellis, a former Montgomery County commissioner and bond finance lawyer, has raised about $360,000. At a time when the stock market is crashing, you might assume the candidates for this office would be getting more public attention. After all, the state treasurer manages about $100 billion in state monies (well, who knows exactly what it’s worth these days) and signs off on about 23 million checks from the state treasury each year. But this race has been about as invisible as the one for auditor general. That’s probably good news for McCord, who seems to have all the advantages in this contest.
PA Congressional Battles:
Pennsylvania was one of the key states that gave Democrats control of the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate in 2006. Five Republican incumbents were ousted – U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum and U.S. Reps. Melissa Hart (4th CD), Curt Weldon (7th CD), Mike Fitzpatrick (8th CD), and Don Sherwood (10th CD) – the Democratic winners were Bob Casey and Jason Altmire, Joe Sestack, Patrick Murphy, and Chris Carney. Each of these incumbents look like winners next Tuesday, although the Republicans are not letting it go without a battle. Hart, for example, has engaged Altmire in a feisty rematch, and Carney’s district is so Republican it requires Carney to garner GOP votes (which he has done) against his challenger, Chris Hackett.
The more interesting races involve other incumbents in other districts. U.S. Rep. Phil English (3rd CD), an Erie Republican first elected in 1994, is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper of Erie. Some polls actually have her in the lead right now, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is pumping money into her race. The district stretches from Erie into Butler and Armstrong Counties just north of Pittsburgh. Dahlkemper is a pro-gun, pro-life, pro-business conservative Democrat, she says, but attacks English on economic and trade issues. You can check out my TV interview with her at http://kdka.com/video/?id=47842@kdka.dayport.com for more.
Could the dean of PA’s congressional delegation, U.S. Rep. Jack Murtha (12th CD) of Johnstown, seriously be in electoral trouble? Well, it didn’t help that he stated publicly to the Pittsburgh Post Gazette that “there is no question that western Pennsylvania is a racist area.” Now whether you believe Murtha was right or not, it’s not the kind of talk folks like to hear from their congressman. Murtha’s comments have been lampooned on “Saturday Night Live” and are now featured in TV ads by his GOP opponent, William Russell, a retired but still young lieutenant colonel who just recently moved to Pennsylvania. Russell is a true conservative on every imaginable issue, who accuses Murtha of “aiding and abetting the enemy” in Iraq for his comments about the U.S. Marines accused, and then cleared, of murdering Iraqis in Haditha. Here’s my TV interview with Russell at http://kdka.com/video/?id=46261@kdka.dayport.com and http://kdka.com/video/?id=46263@kdka.dayport.com. This weekend, Murtha’s campaign, which has largely ignored Russell, issued a statement accusing the Republican of calling himself a “West Point graduate” on his website when, in fact, Russell was dismissed from the academy for “academic failure.” It’s true Russell flunked out of West Point, but his campaign says the website posting is from another organization. Murtha is also accusing Russell of being a Virginia carpetbagger who just moved to PA to run against him. Beside the racism hullabaloo, Murtha, a social conservative, has pumped millions of dollars in “earmarks” into this western PA district that generally likes the money enabled only because of Murtha’s incredible clout on the Appropriations Committee. The question is whether the 76-year old’s comments on racism are enough to cost him an election. Two years ago, Murtha clobbered Washington County commissioner Diana Irey with 61% of the vote. This race will almost certainly be closer. Last week, the Susquehanna Poll, published by the Tribune Review, has Murtha ahead by just four points.
Without a doubt, U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy (18th CD), a Republican from the suburbs of Pittsburgh, seems to luck out every election year. Despite a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic (by 75,000 voters at least), the moderate-to-conservative Republican wins every time. His campaign will tell you, with some accuracy, that this is because nobody works his district harder than Murphy. But it’s also true that the Democrats never quite seem to gel behind an opponent. This year, Monroeville businessman Steve O’Donnell won a contested primary (featuring the daughter of former state treasurer Barbara Hafer) to challenge Murphy. O’Donnell is trying, largely with a lawn sign, radio, and direct mail campaign – while Murphy is blitzing in all the typical ways, including lots of TV ads. Two years ago, against an opponent who did little, Murphy got 58% of the vote. This year, it will be closer, but O’Donnell is fighting the odds – and the failure of the DCCC to target this race says something. One sign that this race may be tighter than some think is that Murphy has now launched an attack ad on O’Donnell on television, surprising many since O’Donnell hasn’t been on TV. But unless the Democratic tide is overwhelming, most people still think Murphy will emerge the victor.
General Assembly Contests a Snoozer:
Gone are the days when an irate public in PA ousted some powerful incumbents because of their unrepentant vote for a massive pay increase. This year’s legislative battles have been largely overshadowed by the presidential race.
The state Senate will certainly remain in GOP control. In this region, some state senators are unopposed, while others have token opposition. PA Sen. John Pippy (37th SD), a Moon Township Republican, is being challenged by Democrat Amy Jude Schmotzer, a nurse from Whitehall who appears to have won the lawn sign battle. The district is marginally Democratic (83,000 Dems to 72,000 Republicans and 18,000 independents/other). Schmotzer has run a grassroots campaign, focusing on a reform agenda, while Pippy echoes the same. Although the Dems have no women from this region in the state Senate, it would take a perfect storm of Dems and independents voting for Schmotzer to upset Pippy.
The race to replace PA Sen. Bob Regola (39th SD), the Westmoreland County Republican who was acquitted of certain gun law violations that resulted in the death of a youngster next door, has been nasty, brutish, and long. Republican Kim Ward and Democrat Tony Bompiani have assaulted each other with accusations that each is a tax-raiser. Ward was just elected minority commissioner for Westmoreland County last year and stepped in for Regola when he suddenly resigned his nomination in August. Bompiani served as a Hempfield school director while Ward was a Hempfield supervisor, which means that both have votes to attack. The state campaign committees of both parties have invested in this battle, and I think the outcome is a toss-up.
PA Rep. Sean Ramaley was the odds-on favorite to replace PA Sen. Jerry Lavalle (47th SD) in this heavily Democratic mostly Beaver County senate district, until Corbett charged Ramaley with doing campaign work while on former state Rep. Mike Veon’s legislative payroll way back when. Democrats think these charges were trumped up, but Ramaley had little choice to step down as the party nominee. That allowed Jason Petrella, who lost in the primary to Ramaley, to get the nod from the executive committee of the Democratic Party in Harrisburg. But their choice of Petrella was at odds with a majority of local committee people in Beaver County who preferred county commissioner Joe Spanik for the nod, while the Beaver-Lawrence Labor Council wanted Bob Grotevant, former aide to Bob Casey. Now a divided Democratic Party is hoping Petrella can withstand attack from a united Republican effort behind their nominee, Elder Vogel. This seat should never go Republican, but it just might this year.
Finally, the one House battle everyone is watching in this region is the Republican effort to unseat the House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (50th HD). Two years ago, DeWeese beat Republican Greg Hopkins by 1,039 votes. This year, Hopkins is back, but the situation is slightly different. First, DeWeese’s former chief of staff has turned state’s evidence in the Bonusgate scandal, and lots of folks think he is fingering DeWeese in the process. Second, DeWeese is running scared, unlike last time, knocking on doors throughout the district even during the snow of last February. Third, DeWeese is going after Hopkins this time, accusing him of spending most of his time in California where Hopkins coaches an arena football team and replaying on TV comments Hopkins made about the district being on welfare. In short, if DeWeese loses this time, it won’t be without a fight from the Democrat.
Well, that wraps this PSF up for the moment. I may try to get another one out before the election. In the meantime, email me your thoughts and predictions. I love hearing from you.
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